Ukip reborn

The UK Independence Party might be about to make a comeback. Ever since Theresa May’s Chequers deal on Brexit, which went down very badly indeed among grassroots Conservatives and Leavers, the opinion polls have been kind to the Purple Army.

The week after the Chequers deal went public, one pollster found support for the party had surged by five points to 8 per cent. It might not sound like much, but it is its best showing since March last year. Furthermore, such numbers are more than enough to tilt the balance at the next general election toward Jeremy Corbyn and Labour.

Indeed, it is no coincidence that as Ukip recovered in the polls, the Conservatives found themselves trailing Labour, with one survey handing Jeremy Corbyn a five-point lead — his second highest of the year (Corbyn only needs a two-point swing to get into coalition territory and a five-point swing for a majority). Amid a tight race with Labour, the Tories cannot afford a rebooted revolt on the right.

There are other signs that the self-anointed People’s Army might be about to come off life support. One insider tells me that the party has attracted 2,500 new members since Chequers and around 3,000 in total since the spring. Membership is still a long way from the peak of 40,000 recorded during 2014-2015, but with an estimated 23,000 recruits this still represents a sizeable rebellion to the right of the Conservatives.

More recent polls suggest that nearly 40 per cent of all voters would be open to supporting a new party that was firmly committed to Brexit (which surges to 67 per cent of Conservative voters), while 24 per cent would support an explicitly far-right, anti-immigrant and anti-Islamism party, which should sound a warning note. Ukip 2.0 may well be distinctly less cuddly than the original.