Boris Johnson will head to Northern Ireland today as the government lays the groundwork to unilaterally overwrite parts of the protocol. Tomorrow, the Foreign Secretary is expected to unveil plans for a new law to change the protocol if the EU refuses to grant concessions. Given Johnson’s frayed relationship with the DUP – the party hasn’t forgiven him for agreeing the current Brexit deal – his call for party leaders in Northern Ireland to get ‘back to work’ and form an executive is likely to have only a limited effect.
However, a 2,000-word article by Johnson in the Belfast Telegraph lifts the lid on the UK strategy when it comes to changing how the protocol is implemented. Over the weekend there have been various briefings against the Foreign Office and Truss – with some figures in No. 10 accusing her (as well as Downing Street deputy chief of staff David Canzini) of adopting too aggressive an approach in terms of language on the protocol, which has led to a souring of the mood between the two sides.
In his article, Johnson attempts a diplomatic approach – insisting that the UK has never wanted to scrap the protocol entirely – instead, he simply wants to seek changes: ‘There is without question a sensible landing spot in which everyone’s interests are protected. Our shared objective must be to the create the broadest possible cross-community support for a reformed protocol in 2024’. However, the Prime Minister makes clear that should the EU refuse to budge, his government takes the view that they will have justification to take unilateral action on the grounds that it is impacting the Good Friday Agreement:
There is no disguising the fact that the delicate balance created in 1998 has been upset. One part of the political community in Northern Ireland feels like its aspirations and identity are threatened by the working of the protocol. And the protocol involves other responsibilities which also need to be lived up to by all sides, including the commitment to protect the Belfast Good Friday Agreement in all its dimensions. We cannot allow the impression that one strand is deemed more important than others; or that EU custom codes – designed for vast container ships coming from Shanghai to Rotterdam, not supermarket lorries from Liverpool to Belfast – somehow trump everything else.
After a series of inter-government hostile briefings, it’s clear that No. 10 believes their best chance of securing changes without EU retaliation is by going softly rather than looking for a fight. The issue for Johnson is that no matter how he dresses up the government’s plan of action, there are many on the EU side who will simply see this as the UK reneging on an agreement. A bumpy few months lie ahead.
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