The Prime Minister used his appearance at the daily government press conference to confirm that the UK is past the peak of coronavirus infections. However, those hoping for a rapid easing of the lockdown are to be left disappointed. Johnson spoke of the need to avoid a second peak and promised a menu of options to be unveiled next week. He said that this would still not include specific dates as any easing will depend on infection data. As James says in this week’s Spectator cover piece, data will be crucial to informing these decisions. The underlying principle that will guide these decisions: the rate of infection – also known as the ‘R’ rate.
Johnson said that the country’s virus reproduction rate – measuring how many others the average person with Covid-19 infects – cannot rise above 1.0:
Our fifth and final test is that nothing, as I say we do, should lift the R or the reproduction rate of that disease back above one. Let me just emphasise that keeping the R down is going to be absolutely vital to our recovery, keeping the reproduction rate of the disease down. And we can only do it by our collective discipline and working together.
Chief Scientific Officer Patrick Vallance said the government believe the overall UK rate is currently between 0.6 and 0.9 – and in London thought to be lower at 0.5 to 0.7. The promise to make sure the R does not rise above one means that for the time being only a very limited lockdown easing can be expected. Dominic Raab pointed out on Wednesday that the R number in Germany has appeared to have gone up following a light easing of lockdown. The hope in government is that in the following weeks – with lockdown continuing – they can get it down further. The lower it is the more options will be on the table for lockdown easing.
Johnson did offer guidance of what a return to work could look like for the public. After weeks of speculation over whether face masks will be advised in public, Johnson said that he believed face coverings could be an important part of lockdown easing: ‘As part of coming out of the lockdown, I do think face coverings will be useful.’
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