Nick Tyrone Nick Tyrone

Boris now faces a terrible choice over Brexit

(Getty images)

Ten thousand lorries usually travel through the port of Dover in the run-up to Christmas. Now, Dover is completely shut. Over the weekend, this crucial supply chain into Britain has stopped. In the coming days, as Brits stock up ahead of Christmas, there is likely to be some pressure on UK supply chains. And as James Forsyth writes on Coffee House, the coming weeks will inevitably mean a crisis for Britain. As such, it begs the question: can Boris really go for a no-deal Brexit now? Can he go through with it at a time when political crises are piling one on top of each other? 

Despite the potential risk, I’m still convinced he will. Why? Because the EU knows that Britain is under particularly acute pressure right now. It is fighting difficult battles on a number of fronts. And this means that it’s very unlikely Brussels will ‘fold’ in any significant sense in Brexit talks. Tory MPs won’t like it but the reality is that the deal isn’t going to get a whole lot better from the UK’s perspective from here. There might be tiny movement on fishing numbers from the EU side; even that I wouldn’t be totally sure about.

In other words, the deal on the table now is the deal. Given that, how can Boris cave into the EU this late in the day? To capitulate to the EU at the last possible moment would be politically terrible for Boris; I will go as far as to say I think it would ruin his standing within the party irreparably. The line from Brexiteers, both inside and outside the Conservative party, would be that finally faced with the last customs post before a clean Brexit, Boris lost his bottle. Nigel Farage’s reaction is entirely predictable – but it could give the Brexit party a devastating new impetus at the expense of the Tories.

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Nick Tyrone
Written by
Nick Tyrone
Nick Tyrone is a former director of CentreForum, described as 'the closest thing the Liberal Democrats have had to a think tank'. He is author of several books including 'Politics is Murder'

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