Nicola Sturgeon is expected to quit as First Minister of Scotland at a press conference later this morning. She has come under increasing pressure in recent weeks over the case of convicted rapist Isla Bryson, but also over her government’s handling of the NHS crisis and striking workers.
This is an unsurprising surprise: Sturgeon had not seemed confident that she would be the SNP leader by the time the next election – or de facto independence referendum as she wanted it to be. The way the Bryson case had diverted attention from the independence cause had, for the first time, left the First Minister politically weak.
This is an unsurprising surprise
As Iain Macwhirter presciently reported this morning, it was looking like game over for Sturgeon, not least because polling now showed Scottish voters wanted her to step down immediately.
The Bryson case was the first time the SNP had ended up having a serious fight on anything other than independence. And not just a fight with its opponents or even with the Alba party which split from the main independence movement, but within the SNP itself. It broke the ‘wheesht for Indy’ omertà where campaigners would put up with all manner of policies they disagreed with in order to maintain total, unbreakable unity for the cause.
Sturgeon is expected to speak at 11 a.m., when she will set out her reasons for resigning and the timetable for her departure. Sources have been suggesting this morning that she has ‘had enough’ – but it’s not clear what she’s had enough of.
What is clear is that while there are plenty of names keen to succeed her, including Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes and Angus Robertson, none of them are the household names that Sturgeon quickly became.
It's worth remembering, though, that when she took over from Alex Salmond in 2014, Sturgeon was not considered to have the same magnetism. Within months, her face was plastered ten foot high over billboards across Scotland, promising a 'stronger voice for Scotland'. She very quickly established her own credentials, to the extent that she is often talked about by unionist voters as 'that woman' without any further details needed.
This is nevertheless an opportunity for the unionist parties in Holyrood to get more airtime. The Scottish Tories enjoyed a renaissance under Ruth Davidson, but have struggled since and Douglas Ross is not the most charismatic leader. Scottish Labour, though, has enjoyed a political recovery under Anas Sarwar and can reach soft unionist voters in a way the Conservatives can’t.
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