There’s long been a view among senior Brexiteers that the way the EU and UK would agree a deal would be by running the negotiations down to the wire and Brussels offering a last minute concession. This appeared to be the strategy in play on Monday night as Theresa May found herself locked in talks on changes to the backstop in Strasbourg with less than 24 hours to go until her deal is due to be voted on in the Commons.
In turn, David Lidington was given the undesirable task of addressing frustrated MP in the Chamber. Theresa May’s de facto deputy adopted an apologetic tone at the despatch box – apologising first for the lack of prior notice to his statement and then saying sorry for not being able to offer MPs a complete update on the negotiations which are ongoing. Lidington said he did have some updates for the House – announcing that the government has ‘secured legally binding changes that strengthen and improve the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration’. The cabinet minister said two joint statements will be laid tonight – a joint interpretative instrument for the Withdrawal Agreement and a joint addition to the political declaration.
Within government, I understand the hope was that No. 10 would be able to present three changes: a joint interpretive declaration, a beefing up in political declaration of technological solutions as route out of backstop and a unilateral statement on the temporary nature of backstop. That latter idea – the unilateral statement – was not mentioned by Lidington and it was seen within government as the aspect that would be the trickiest to win from Brussels. Tellingly, the DUP’s Nigel Dodds used his question after the statement to ask when May’s evening talks would include – suggesting this aspect would be crucial to winning DUP backing. The ERG already appear lukewarm at best on the plans.
The government statement since put down does indeed reference a ‘unilateral declaration’:
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1105240160013373440
It now remains to be seen whether these changes are enough to convince 116 new MPs to back her deal. A pivotal moment will come tomorrow when the Attorney General publishes his legal advice. If Geoffrey Cox says there is no longer a risk of the UK being trapped in the backstop it could present a breakthrough for No. 10. However, there remain doubts within government over whether he will. Depending on the timing, May could also come under pressure to move the vote by a day so MPs have time to fully digest the new information.
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