The campaigning has been halted, as the country mourns the death of Jo Cox, but the financial markets have continued and indicate that a Remain vote is significantly more likely than Leave. The pound has been rising sharply (it would likely fall in the event of Brexit) and the betting markets how suggest that a Remain vote is almost twice as likely as Brexit. The Spectator’s Live Odds chart is below, and will update every time you revisit the page.
That said, the bookmakers have been wrong before (this time last year they gave Donald Trump a 2pc chance of winning the Republican nomination) and the last few published polls give a clear lead to Leave. So this referendum will be especially hard to call.
James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I be discussing all this with Spectator subscribers at the Royal Institution in Mayfair on Monday at 6.30pm. I’m delighted to say that Ben Page, chief executive of Ipsos Mori, will be joining us.
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