The UK will narrowly avoid a formal recession this year. That’s the consensus that is emerging based on the current data. This morning’s Economic Outlook from the OECD – which forecasts 0.3 per cent growth in 2023 – reflects similar projections from the IMF’s latest update and the Office for Budget Responsibility, which have revised their figures upwards in recent months. But to what extent will this modest growth actually be felt by Brits? Here the picture is far less positive.
Inflation – which remains stubbornly high, in Britain especially – continues to eat away at real wages. The OECD predicts that the UK will continue to suffer from some of the highest inflation rates among advanced economies, averaging 6.9 per cent this year (once again bringing into question the Prime Minister’s pledge to ‘halve inflation’ by the end of the year). The inflation rate on the year to April sat at 8.7
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