Labour’s losing no time on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election – due three weeks on Thursday (May 22). I suspect they believe this will be a much-needed fillip to Brown. Sure, Gwyneth Dunwoody had a 7,000 majority – but it’s the type of seat Cameron needs if he is to win the kind of majority projected by the ICM/News of the World poll at the weekend. Therefore if Labour retains it, Brown can genuinely claim it is an achievement of sorts. Also you can bet the LibDems will turn up in their caravans, and gobble an unfair share of the anti-Brown vote. So a very small chance of a Tory victory, I’d say.
Update: Iain Dale points out that the election is being arranged before her funeral has taken place and that Fraser Kemp has refused to run the campaign.