Labour appears split over whether or not it wants a referendum on Scottish independence, Wendy Alexander is in favour but Gordon appears to be against. But I actually think Gordon should want such a referendum as it provides him with an opportunity, albeit a risky one, to get back on track.
Here’s my thinking:
1). The pro-Union forces would win: The latest poll shows that only one in four voters support independence and being associated with a winning side would be good for Brown right now.
2). It would allow Brown to show his passion: A large part of Brown’s problem at the moment is that he appears to stand for nothing. But as Matt has long argued, Brown has thought more about the meaning of Britishness than any other contemporary politician. Being the impassioned defender of the Union would give Brown a role again and might even enable him to look like a statesman.
3). It would reassert his position within the Labour party: As Matt noted the other day, every other cabinet minister is now giving speeches about what Labour needs to do now. But a debate over the Union would restore Brown’s pre-eminence. One can hardly imagine voters in Glasgow being swayed by a Miliband, Balls or Purnell. Equally, Charles Clarke would have little clout in this debate.
4). It would cause Cameron problems: A referendum would throw up two problems for Cameron. First, there would be some candidates and, maybe even, MPs who might go off the Unionist message, allowing Brown to paint—however unfairly—the Tories as threat to the Union. Second, in any cross-party campaign Cameron would have to play second fiddle to the PM. Obviously, there are risks to this approach. A referendum in Scotland could stir up anger in England over the inequities of the post-devolution settlement. Alex Salmond, perhaps the canniest politician in the Union, could end up turning this into a close run thing; leaving Gordon with porridge on his face.
But Brown has to be prepared to take risks. For the way politics is set, if Brown plays it safe for the next two years then he will lose the next election.
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