There have been some strange responses to the Oldham by election. Right wingers such as Harry Phibbs and Toby Young saying it spells trouble for Labour, lefties insisting its disastrous for Cameron, the likes of Danny Finkelstein suggesting that underneath the big trouble lies in wait for Clegg. Of them all I think Finkelstein is the closest to the mark, but it’s still overstating the case. In truth it was the most boring and predictable of all possible results; Labour won and did well enough to preserve its undynamic leader from renewed scrutiny. The Lib Dem vote did not collapse (as national polls predicted), partly for reasons of tactical voting and partly because the Lib Dem voters up there are more rightish than those in the south. And Cameron can console himself that the coalition holds.
In a way, the best performance came in that three-way fight I was talking about on the “far right”, and from UKIP. They clearly picked up a lot of disenchanted Tories and beat the BNP. I might do a little study to see what will happen if UKIP nicks two thousand new votes from the Tories in every constituency…………………………
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