For months now, Number 10 has been fretting about what to do about Romanian and Bulgarian immigration. From the end of this year, any Romanian and Bulgarian will be able to move here in search of work. Downing Street knows that if they come in large numbers it’ll negate everything that the government has done to try and get immigration under control. Fairly or not, it’ll be fatal to the Tories’ reputation for competence on this issue.
David Cameron is, as today’s Times and Mail reveal, now planning a major intervention on this issue. He wants to achieve three things. First, show that his government is handling the issue better than Labour did. Second, empahsise what the government has already done to tighten up the rules around access to benefits and public services. Third, explain how he’ll stop this situation happening again by making the issue part of his EU renegotiation. Cameron wants to ensure that freedom of movement only applies to workers and those who can support themselves.
Inside government, there are two particular fears about the end of transition controls. They worry that the first few months of figures will be very high as Romanians and Bulgarians who are already here but not entirely sure of their immigration status regularise themselves. The second is about how many Roma come. There is a worry that their presence could cause community tensions. I understand that there have already been discussions about how to prevent the emergence of Roma encampments.
Ukip is convinced that Romanians and Bulgarians will come in large numbers and that public disquiet about this, will help Ukip win the European Elections next year. For their part, government ministers believe that because Britain is one of the last countries to abandon accession controls, the numbers will be relatively limited. Who is right about this will go a long way to shaping the debate about the EU and immigration.
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