Cameron must reunite the Tories or lose the next election

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[/audioplayer]No one goes to Birmingham to revive a marriage. But that is what David Cameron and the Conservative party must do next week at conference. They must find a way to put the passion back into their relationship, to learn to trust each other again ahead of the general election. For neither can win without the other next May.

That election is there to be won. The Labour gathering in Manchester this week was not one of a party convinced that it is going to surge to victory in a few months. The atmosphere was subdued, bordering on depressed. Thoughtful Labour frontbenchers wandered around fretting about how there was nothing in the programme to expand the party’s appeal. Unlike last year, Ed Miliband failed to make the political weather with his speech. By forgetting to talk about the deficit and immigration, he omitted the two most important issues in British politics — the ones that matter most to the voters.

Three issues most determine general elections: the economy, leadership and how unified a party is. On the first two, the Conservatives are polling well. But on the third, they have a major problem; 61 per cent of voters think they are divided. On stage in Birmingham next week, Douglas Carswell will not be mentioned. But in the bars and on the fringe, his defection — and its implications — will be much discussed. The split on the right is about to become a feature of the British parliamentary system, and could deny Cameron victory in 2015.

When Carswell resigned and forced a by-election in Clacton, the Conservative leadership feared it would overshadow everything else. They decided to hold it as soon as possible to get it out of the way.