This is from tonight’s Evening Blend email, a free round-up and analysis of the day’s political events. Subscribe here.
Today in brief
- François Hollande warned that there would be ‘consequences’ for the British-French border deal that keeps migrants at Calais.
- Boris Johnson responded to the warnings that Brexit could lead to a ‘Jungle’ on UK soil with ‘Donnez-moi un break’.
- Jeremy Corbyn rejected the ‘failed economic orthodoxy’ espoused by the previous Labour government and called for a ‘new settlement with the corporate sector’.
- Caroline Lucas attacked Labour for its ‘silence’ in the EU referendum.
- Sajid Javid said he was still a ‘Brussels basher’ despite backing the campaign to stay in.
- Len McCluskey accused Labour MP Stephen Doughty of a ‘sinister agenda’ for making an allegation of bullying against a Unite member.
The analysis
Cameron plays the jungle drums again
When David Cameron warned that Brexit would lead to a Calais-style ‘Jungle’ camp of migrants in Kent, he was pilloried in the press for making a ludicrous and untrue claim. Now, nearly a month later, the Prime Minister has decided to have another go, but using politicians from another country to make his case. This morning in an interview with the Financial Times, economy minister Emmanuel Macron warned that ‘The day this relationship unravels, migrants will no longer be in Calais’. He was immediately attacked by the Vote Leave campaign, with Boris Johnson saying ‘Donnez-moi un break as we say in Brussels’, and pointing out that the current arrangements were in place as a result of a bilateral treaty, not the European Union. Then François Hollande weighed in, saying as menacingly as it is possible for François Hollande to say anything, that ‘there will be consequences’ for the border if Britain did leave the EU. The French President was speaking alongside David Cameron at the Anglo-French summit in Northern France, and warned: ‘There will be consequences if the UK is to leave the EU, there will be consequences in many areas, in the single market, in the financial trade, in development, in the economic development between our two countries. It doesn’t mean that everything will be destroyed, I don’t want to give you catastrophic scenarios, but there will be consequences.’ The question is why David Cameron thinks it is a good idea to deliberately move the debate onto immigration, an issue on which the ‘In’ campaign is weak and the ‘Out’ side is strong. As James says in his column this week, it is better for Remain to stick to talking about the economy. Meanwhile Caroline Lucas has been warning of catastrophic scenarios for the EU referendum campaign, worrying on Coffee House that the left isn’t getting its act together in the campaign. She criticises the ‘relative silence’ from the party’s leadership, and warns that ‘complacency could increase the chances of Britain sleepwalking out of the EU’. Jeremy Corbyn’s silence has confused his MPs, who can’t work out whether they’d rather he got more involved in the campaign for Britain to stay in the EU, or whether him being more visible would actually put their voters off even more. Either way, there’s not much they can do: Corbyn is not the sort of person who gives the impression that he might be able to feign passion effectively. Unlike his frontbenchers, who have been told to emulate Will Smith as they campaign. More details on that here.Today in audio
- The Spectator podcast: Donald Trump’s angry America
- On our audio round-up of the day: Mitt Romney branded Donald Trump a phoney. Francois Hollande said there would be ‘consequences’ if Britain left the EU, David Cameron said Britain is better off staying in and German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he would ‘cry’ if Britain leaves
Tomorrow’s agenda
- 10:30 Prime Minister David Cameron is to give a speech to the Scottish Conservatives’ conference in Edinburgh
- David Cameron is reportedly to hold a conference call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande to discuss Syria
- European Council President Donald Tusk is to hold a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul ahead of a special European Council meeting on Monday to discuss the migration crisis in Turkey
- Davis Cup first round matches at the Barclaycard Arena in Birmingham
- In cinemas: ‘Truth’ – biographical drama about American news anchor Dan Rather, who resigned from CBS News after parts of a damning report on President George W. Bush’s service in the Vietnam War were shown to have been based on forged documents, ‘The Choice’ – romantic drama based on a book by Nicholas Sparks, ‘Hail, Caesar!’ – Coen Brothers comedy about a Hollywood fixer in the 1950s
Some vital statistics
- Brexit chances, as implied by bookies’ odds: Leave 29% (-2pts on last week), Remain 71% (+2pts)
- Oil price (barrel of Brent crude): $36.90 (down 0.1% on the day, down 40% on the year)
- Government borrowing cost (10-year bond yield): 1.45% (down 0.02pts on the day)
- GBP/USD exchange rate: $1.42 (up 0.7% on the day, down 7.7% on the year)
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