We’ve made the point before that Brown’s fortunes are largely wedded to the state of the economy. After all, he took all the credit for its buoyancy during his time as Chancellor. So he seems to be the best candidate to take the blame now things have gone awry.
The worry for Team Brown is that things may be about to get a whole lot worse. Over the past few days, the chatter from monetary policy makers has been of how both the private and public sectors need to show pay restraint in order to prevent a particularly vicious inflationary spiral. Trouble is, many public sector workers don’t exactly share the Treasury’s worries. Today some 600,000 council workers backed a strike over pay.
Of course, the Government has stood firm in the face of various pay demands this year. But if industrial action on such a large scale goes ahead, then their resolve will be well-and-truly tested. After all, it’s when problems with the real economy spill over into day-to-day life that voters get truly disgruntled. Nothing will quite ring the death knell for Labour like the sight of uncollected rubbish in the streets.
For Brown it seems like a lose-lose situation. Give into the unions, and risk both appearing weak and worsening inflation. Or reject the unions’ demands, and face a Winter of Discontent. Is there any way out?
Nick Robinson today highlighted a plan that “some close to the PM” are considering – namely, changing the Chancellor. Myself, I’m not sure that even that would make a difference. Darling may be a largely ineffectual figure, but that’s half the point – the orders emanate from No.10 anyway. I doubt that would change even if a loyal Brownite such as Ed Balls were selected. So why should we believe that a new chancellor will bring new thinking with them? Why should we think that the inflationary timebomb will be defused? CoffeeHousers, your thoughts please.
For more coverage of the country’s inflation concerns head over to Trading Floor.
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