The prospect of a Christmas election is one the Scottish Conservatives do not greet with enthusiasm. The party has lost its leader, must fight a Brexit election in a country that voted 62 per cent Remain, and faces an SNP riding high in the polls. It is not difficult to imagine a scenario in which the party is flattened by another 1997-style wipeout. After that election, it took the Tories 20 years to recover their standing north of the border. Another trip to the ballot box will be a retention operation: how many of their 13 seats can the Scottish Tories hold onto?
The SNP could not ask for a better set of circumstances in which to fight an election. Their core vote is likely to hold firm to advance the independence cause while affluent Remainers, currently more concerned about no deal than separation, are looking for a protest vote to send a message to the Tories.
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