Ahead of the crunch Cabinet meeting No. 10 aides privately admitted that the one minister they could not afford to lose was Dominic Raab. It wasn’t just that losing a second Brexit Secretary would send a very bad signal about the government’s Brexit policy. More importantly, Raab is regarded as a pragmatic Brexiteer and there was a fear that his resignation would have a domino effect.
Those fears were correct. So far today we have seen a second Cabinet minister resign as well as a number of junior ministers. What’s more, there is a very good chance more will come. So, where does May go from here? Not only does her Brexit deal look dead on arrival, May’s premiership is at maximum danger point. There is an expectation that there will be a confidence vote within days. The ERG have decided that the problem is no longer just the policy. May’s performance at the despatch box will calm some nerves but what will really decide her fate is what her critics do.
What has kept May in place until now is the fact that her critics are divided. This is not the first time there has been talk of ousting her. Previously, this scenario has always failed to become reality as there was no alternative plan and no alternative leadership candidate that MPs could agree on. Even Brexiteers are divided on going for ‘no deal’, EEA temporary or Canda +++. As for a new leader, the length of a bloody Tory leadership contest would hardly helpful to the negotiations.
Speaking to May allies this morning, they still suspect that May would win a confidence vote – even if she refuses to change course. However, there is a caveat in all this. They admit that the picture could change quite dramatically if Tory MPs managed to rally around a leadership candidate quickly and effectively. That’s a big if. Installing a caretaker prime minister is no easy task.
David Davis’s allies have been keen to talk him up as a ‘caretaker prime minister’ for the last two years but not everyone is convinced. Likewise, Boris Johnson is viewed as too divisive. There’s also the fact that a figure like Priti Patel could choose to stand and soon then a lot of other candidates would start to enter themselves into the race. But if May’s critics can unite around a viable alternative leader, the picture could change dramatically.
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