Andrea Leadsom’s decision to drop out of the leadership race — and by default make Theresa May the party’s new leader — has been met with a collective sigh of relief by the majority of Conservative MPs. However, for the same reason that many were worried by Leadsom’s appeal to grassroots Tories, they ought too to be worried about the opportunity her departure presents to their opponents.
In the course of the — short-lived — leadership contest, Leadsom established herself as the Brexit purist, winning nominations from MPs on the right of the party. She also won the backing of leading figures in Ukip with both Arron Banks’s Leave.EU and Nigel Farage endorsing her. Over the weekend, Banks even confessed that Leadsom as Tory leader could spell the end for Ukip. He predicted that supporters would ‘come back to the Conservatives’. As for the prospect of a May government? ‘Ukip will be back and on steroids,’ he remarked in the Sunday Times.
It follows that May’s election hands Ukip the opportunity to now brand themselves as the true Brexit party. Yet before they can seize on a Remain-er taking control of the Conservative party, they need to find a leader who can put an end to their own internal feuding. As has become typical of Ukip, the party is once again pre-occupied by in-fighting. The news today that the NEC has voted to bar candidates who have been party members for less than five years from standing for leader has gone down like a cup of cold sick with certain factions.
While the party had boasted of its democratic practise — it allows anyone to enter so long as they can stump up a deposit of £5000 and get 50 signatures — this move is seen as a way of stopping certain candidates from running. If put into practise, Suzanne Evans — who has accused the NEC of behaving like EU bureaucrats — Douglas Carswell and Peter Whittle are among those who would not be eligible. Steven Woolfe, the current frontrunner, would still be able to go forward with a leadership bid.
If Ukip hope to capitalise on the Tories having a Remain-er — who has not been elected by party members — as Prime Minister, they will not only need a leader who can unite its politicians but one that the membership believe was elected fairly.
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