Next month Ukraine goes to the polls in its seventh presidential election since it achieved independence in 1991. Five years on from Euromaidan, and the resulting Russia invasion, the country remains bitterly divided between pro and anti-Europeans. Yet, this will be the first election not to feature a powerful, pro-Russian force amongst the frontrunners.
Although, of course, that isn’t to say Russia won’t be doing its best to influence the election – something the Ukrainians have become used to. As is often the case in this part of the world, an election isn’t really an election if the Kremlin doesn’t interfere. In its defence, Russia insists that it’s actually the West doing the meddling – specifically the UK. Several pro-Kremlin outlets have claimed that Britain not only plans to interfere but will do so to ensure the election of a pro-Russian candidate, as, apparently, that would help to solve the conflict in Donbass quicker. Interesting.
This time Ukrainians can choose from a whopping 44 candidates. It’s also the most diverse field of candidates in Ukraine’s history, encompassing not only veteran politicians, but also comedians, journalists, war veterans, spies and accused criminals.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a comedian who only announced his candidacy in January, is currently the front-runner, polling around 19 per cent. His popularity is a symptom of Ukrainians’ disenchantment with their existing political elites, best represented by a joke circulating in Kyiv: ‘For years, we have voted for serious people, and all we got is farce. So why not vote for a comedian and see what happens?’
Zelenskiy makes the most of being a political outsider. Earlier in February, he created the hashtag #ЯKлоун (#IAmAClown), referring to his profession while also making the point that Ukrainians had been clowns because they had allowed the country’s political elites to rob them blind. Hundreds of Ukrainians shared his message by posting videos of themselves with red nose filters to look like clowns.
Funnily enough, Zelenskiy is already president of Ukraine in a popular TV series called Servant of the People – a name he’s borrowed for his real life party. He plays a teacher whose rant against the kleptocracy of the government is filmed by a student and goes viral, propelling him into the presidency. Intrigued readers can find the series on Netflix.
Close second on 18 per cent is Yulia Tymoshenko, a veteran running for president for the third time. Long Ukraine’s most compelling political figure, she’s a household name, known simply as Yulia. Instantly recognisable, she’s notoriously unpredictable, having veered from arch-Ukrainian nationalist to Kremlin partner and back again.
Like other big sharks in Ukrainian business and politics, Tymoshenko made a fortune in the ruthless and corrupt natural gas business and was nicknamed ‘the gas princess’ for her role in shady dealings back in the 1990s. She played a key role in the Orange Revolution in 2004 and then became Prime Minister, was later jailed for embezzlement and now proposes a ‘new course’ for Ukraine. Her trademark braid is gone and she now wears her hair pulled back tight in a long ponytail thrown over her left shoulder.
Yet few seem convinced by her makeover. At one of her rallies, banners read: ‘Old song. New hairstyle’. Despite polling second (which is more a reflection of the divided nature of Ukrainian politics than any substantive support) she remains hugely divisive. 74 per cent of Ukrainians don’t trust her, and her approval ratings hover only slightly above the incumbent, Petro Poroshenko.
Poroshenko, who swooped to power in the elections held just after Maidan, made his fortune through chocolate. He has had disastrously low ratings since 2016 and almost half of people polled said they would not vote for him ‘under any circumstances’. If he did manage to defy the odds, he’d be only the second Ukrainian president to win re-election.
As the election draws nearer, the Kremlin’s attention is increasing as are its attacks on Ukraine’s stability. In November, Moscow implemented sanctions on members of Ukraine’s political and business elite. A few weeks later, Russian coast guard vessels sparked the first-ever direct clash between the two countries’ militaries by firing on Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait.
Over the past several years, the Kremlin has upped its efforts to influence democratic politics abroad. Backing eurosceptic, anti-immigrant and isolationist parties, Moscow has supported candidates of uncertainty – whoever promises to shake-up the status quo. This time it’s Tymoshenko and her ‘new course’ which could cause the most uncertainty – and potentially further Russia’s interests.
Economically, Tymoshenko’s ‘new course’ means a departure from Ukraine’s IMF programme as it’s currently conceived, potentially leading to financial uncertainty. Despite the former prime minister’s strong pro-EU and pro-NATO orientation, anti-IMF sentiment has become the cornerstone of her campaign.
She railed against the pension reform passed last October, calling it a ‘cynical, ruthless deception of Ukrainians,’ and blaming it for the country’s pension crisis. She has also called the government’s hike in household gas prices a ‘genocide against the Ukrainian people’ and promised that gas prices will be three times lower if she is elected. But without committing to reforms, Ukraine will lose the support of the IMF – the organisation keeping the country solvent.
Regarding the war in Donbass, Tymoshenko insists that she will not accept peace on Putin’s terms. Many Ukrainians, though, believe she may be too willing to cut a deal with the Kremlin. As a member of parliament since 2014, she did not vote to declare Russia an ‘aggressor country,’ to demand the de-occupation of the Donbas or to revoke the 1997 Russia-Ukraine friendship treaty. Similarly, while prime minister in 2008, she refrained from commenting on the Russo-Georgian war as the West uniformly condemned Russian aggression.
Regardless of who wins in March, confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is likely to continue. Until the two countries reconcile, they will continue to find sources of conflict all around them – both in the Kerch Strait and at the ballot box.
Sofia Svensson is a researcher with the International Observatory of Human Rights, working on Ukraine and eastern Europe
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