Mark Nayler

Catalonia braces itself for another independence fight

Two months on, the outcome of the messy sequence of events triggered by Catalonia’s independence referendum remains unclear: neither side has secured its desired result and, in their own ways, both have behaved badly. How did Spain arrive at this bitter impasse, and what will happen next in the Catalonia saga? If the optimism of Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish PM, is to be believed, there could be an end in sight very soon. Rajoy, who dissolved the Catalan parliament and called regional elections for December 21, says he is hoping for a restoration of ‘peace and social harmony’ in Catalonia.

Rajoy’s statement, made in a TV interview this week, was a barely-disguised plea to Catalans to put an end to the secessionists’ latest attempt to divorce Spain. Yet the most recent polls suggest that the December elections will be an extremely close-run affair. Catalonia, it seems, has still not fallen out of love with the idea of independence. In a survey published in El Pais this week, secessionist and nationalist parties were each forecast to take around 46 per cent of the regional vote. Catalonia’s deposed pro-independence president, Carles Puigdemont, has said this election is the most important in the region’s history; and, with a record 80 per cent turnout expected, Catalans appear to agree with him. The vote will also reflect how Catalans feel about Madrid’s handling of the Catalonia issue over the last few tumultuous months. This is where the Spanish prime minister has cause for concern, because his government’s heavy-handed behaviour since the referendum may have pushed many Catalan neutrals into the secessionist camp.

Rajoy’s decision to press the constitutional nuclear button by activating Article 155 of the Spanish constitution, which allows Madrid to take control of a rogue autonomous region, remains controversial. After repeated failure  from the separatists to outline their plans for secession, Rajoy claimed it was the only card left for him to play.

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