Ben Brogan suspects the financial crisis is an advantage for Gordon Brown. Perhaps it is. In the short-term. Make that in the very short-term. But in the medium to long-term it’s another millstone dragging him to the bottom. Danny Finkelstein is, I believe, correct:
This election will not be fought in the middle of a crisis. It will be fought in the depressed aftermath that results from the crisis. The politics of these two moments are quite different.
In a crisis people will be small ‘c’ conservatives, clinging to experience. They fear losing what they have got. But the literature on loss aversion suggests that in the depressed aftermath, when things are already bad, they will take a risk, and plump for change.
So even if I were inclined to believe that the electorate are willing to give Brown a second chance – which I am not – I don’t think Labour can win using experience against change.
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