Cleverly gains momentum as Tory MPs prepare to vote

Tory MPs are today preparing to cast their votes in the next round of the party’s leadership contest. The final four will become three, ahead of another ballot tomorrow afternoon to produce the pair who will go to the membership.

It is now four weeks since Mel Stride was knocked out and the big shift in the Tory leadership race is neatly demonstrated by the candidate that Stride has chosen to endorse. James Cleverly won his backing last night, with some MPs believing that he now has the momentum to make it to the final two. Cleverly performed poorly on the last ballot, going backwards to tie with Tom Tugendhat on 21 votes apiece. But since then he has had a good month, with the bookmakers suggesting that he is now the favourite to win.

On Sunday, a Conservative Home survey found that Cleverly had overtaken Robert Jenrick both on members’ first preferences and in the final head-to-head. A second survey released today reveals the reason why: Cleverly was the only candidate believed to have had a good party conference. More than half of respondents said that events in Birmingham made them more likely to vote for him, versus just 14 per cent for the reverse. By contrast, every other hopeful saw a net loss in support. The reason for this is clear: Cleverly gave the strongest speech of the final four at Tory conference. Some 42 per cent of members believe this is the case, compared to 22 per cent for Kemi Badenoch and 14 per cent for Jenrick. Notably, Tugendhat – Cleverly’s main rival for the One Nation vote – was perceived as delivering the worst speech, with just 4 per cent saying he performed best.

This is important because many MPs believe that there are actually two contests currently going on: with one centrist slot for either Cleverly or Tugendhat and the other right wing slot for Jenrick or Badenoch. Supporters of James Cleverly believe the reason that he underwhelmed in the last ballot was because of the entreaties of Tom Tugendhat’s camp, urging MPs to keep the latter in the contest. Cleverly’s team hope that if – as expected – Tugendhat goes out today, then a hefty chunk of the 21 votes that he boasted last time will likely transfer over to him. This could enable him to overtake Kemi Badenoch when it comes to the final MPs’ ballot tomorrow afternoon. Conservative Home’s survey suggests that Cleverly would beat Jenrick comfortably by 54 per cent to 36 – an argument which his supporters are quick to make. ‘If you genuinely think Tom can beat Rob among the members, then please, by all means go and vote for him,’ says one. ‘But if you look at the actual polling, James is the only one who stands a chance.’

Of course, Conservative MPs do not just vote on the basis of which candidate is more likely to win. There are some waverers whose doubts over Cleverly will not have been helped by the row over the Chagos Islands. But the fact that Tom Tugendhat is going so hard for his rival over the handover shows not just a genuine fear for the islands’ future but a realisation that only one of the two men looks likely to be making it through to tomorrow. Unfortunately for Tugendhat, all signs point to the momentum being with James Cleverly, ahead of the result at 3:30 p.m today.