James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cometh the hour

The biggest threat to Boris's leadership bid could be Boris himself

The worse things are for the Tories, the better for Boris Johnson. If the Tories were ahead in the polls, he’d have little hope of becoming leader. MPs would choose someone more clubbable, less divisive, and more interested in them personally: who didn’t annoy so many of them so much. But Tory MPs are now contemplating an existential crisis. Tory voters are defecting en masse to Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. The Conservative party’s survival may well turn on winning these voters back, and the former foreign secretary — the tribune of Leave, the buccaneering Brexiteer, the darling of the grassroots — is the most obvious person to do that. Suddenly, Boris is back and in contention for the leadership again. The question now is: can he do what it takes to win?

Ever since Theresa May lost the Tory majority in 2017, her departure has seemed inevitable. The question has been when she’d go, not if. She has survived longer than anyone expected, but now the end really is near. She’s promised to hold a vote on her Withdrawal Agreement Bill next month. If it is defeated, as nearly everyone expects, it will be over: she’ll have no options left. If by some miracle it passes, she has promised to resign once the legislation is through. Whatever happens, the Tories will have a new leader by the autumn at the latest.

Under Tory rules, the MPs choose two candidates and the members choose a winner. No one doubts that, if Johnson can do enough to make it to the membership, he’d triumph. ‘The only person who can stop Boris is Boris,’ is how one experienced hand at the heart of government puts it. But many of his detractors, and even some of his supporters, think he can do just that.

No one has forgotten the drama last time: he didn’t manage to get a campaign organised in the days after the EU referendum.

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