Now it gets messy. Lord Ashcroft’s poll putting support for Scottish independence at 52-48 (the cursed percentages) is the first to register a majority for separation since March 2017. It is, of course, a single poll; we have been here before. But recent polls have shown a gradual uptick in support for secession and if this survey is followed by others we will have a trend on our hands. In that case, though Boris Johnson will take a lot of the flak, it is more likely to be the Brexit he embodies than his newborn premiership that shifted the dial. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to Remain in the EU and now the talk is of no deal and WTO terms and stocking up on canned goods and antibiotics.
Hence, Lord Ashcroft finds more Scots in favour of than against a second independence referendum within the next two years. He also records one in five 2014 No voters and 40 per cent of Labour voters backing a split.
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