Is next year’s London mayoral contest a done deal? When the Tories first started the process of candidate selection, the general sense was that they had little chance of taking the mayoralty from Sadiq Khan. However, as the Labour mayor has faced a voter backlash over his support for Ulez (the ultra low emission zone), the race looks closer than previously thought. What’s more, there is one man who could decide it.
Step forward Jeremy Corbyn. The former Labour leader – who is currently banned from standing as a candidate for the party – could deny Khan a third term as London mayor if he decides to run as an independent candidate. That’s the finding of a Redfield and Wilton poll for Times Radio. The poll found that, as things stand, Khan is on track for a very narrow victory – with 33 per cent support to 32 per cent support for the Tory candidate Susan Hall. However, were Corbyn to throw his hat in, he would apparently come third with 15 per cent of the vote – and hand victory to Hall, as Khan’s share of the vote would drop to 25 per cent.
As I reported in the magazine last month, the fear in Labour has long been that Corbyn would split the vote and let the Tories in. Changes brought in under the Electoral Reform Act 2022 mean that next year’s mayoral election will take place using a first-past-the-post voting system. But the reason for scepticism is that it is still unclear as to whether Corbyn will throw his hat in.
Speaking at the Edinburgh Fringe, Corbyn refused to rule out a mayoral bid when pressed, instead answering: ‘Well let’s have a think about it, shall we?’ But Labour figures still doubt that Corbyn will really go the Ken Livingstone route and join the mayoral race as an independent.
While some of his old advisers have encouraged the idea, running for City Hall is expensive and requires nominations London-wide. Corbyn’s main focus so far is on running as an independent MP in his seat of Islington North. Should he decide to go for the mayoralty, crowdfunding could be an option. Jamie Driscoll, the North of Tyne Mayor, has raised more than £130,000 of his £150,000 target to fund his campaign to run as an independent mayoral candidate in 2024 after leaving Labour. Labour aides will be hoping Corbyn does not take inspiration from Driscoll’s example.
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