France’s centre-right newspaper, Le Figaro, is running a poll on its website asking readers if they’re happy to see Donald Trump in the White House. At the last count 56 per cent of the 131,954 respondents said they were.
One person who most definitely is delighted is Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Front, who said the election result was ‘good news for our country’. That’s because, as she went on to explain, Trump would end ‘wild globalisation’, improve relations with Russia and, most importantly, rein in ‘the warlike interventions that are the source of the huge migratory waves that we are suffering’.
But what will it do to her own chances of winning next May’s presidential election? France’s two-round system makes it extremely difficult for an outsider to cause a shock on the scale of America’s election. In the 2002 French presidential election Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie (who tweeted yesterday ‘the people need truth and courage. Bravo America!’) knocked out the Socialist contender, Lionel Jospin, in the first round but was then crushed by Jacques Chirac in the second round when the Socialists backed the centre-right candidate. The same thing happened last December in the regional elections when the National Front finished first in six of the 13 regional elections in the first round, but were beaten in all a week later when, again, the Socialists transferred their allegiance to the centre right
And yet…the old world order is crumbling and who’s to say that the French might not cause another political earthquake next May? At this moment the favourite to become the next president of France is Alain Juppé.
Juppé is a career politician, a bloodless bureaucrat who, when he was prime minister of France twenty years ago, was dubbed ‘The Computer’ because of his lack of human warmth. Last week, the centre right Les Républicains held the second of three televised debates to decide which of the seven contenders will go forward as their official candidate. Juppé did nothing wrong but he hardly shone as a man of charisma, a man of innovation and energy, a man to lead France forward into a new bright era of economic prosperity and homeland security. Among the words used to describe his performance by political analysts were ‘authoritative’ and ‘sobriety’. Yet this is also a 71-year-old politician with a conviction for misuse of public funds, and someone who to great swathes of the French population epitomises the out-of-touch elite who have never lived in the real world.
Juppé’s main challenger for Les Républicains nomination is the former president Nicolas Sarkozy, who in recent months has lurched to the right and strayed into the territory normally associated with the National Front. Promising to confront Islamic extremism head-on, Sarkozy has also said he understands why the silent majority is now finding its voice across the world. At the weekend, he said:
‘Democratic leaders have this single-voiced and single-minded approach to politics in general, and because of this, people are no longer allowed to address real-life problems like immigration and Islam. People are angry, and that’s why they’ve turned to Mr Trump. Every time you mention the word Islam, you’re an Islamophobe. Every time you say that there are too many immigrants in your country, you’re a racist. And when you say you want to defend French interests, you’re a nationalist.’
His bullishness is matched only by Juppe’s blandishments and the dilemma for Les Républicains when they vote for their presidential candidate on November 20 is to decide who is best placed to beat Le Pen.
Juppé is more palatable to left-wing voters, the vast majority of whom acknowledge they have no chance of seeing a socialist victory, but he’s mistrusted by many on the right for his lack of tough talking on the questions of security and immigration. Sarkozy, on the other hand, is detested by most on the left but admired by many on the right who prefer him to Le Pen, but her to Juppé.
Judging by their initial reaction to the result from America, it’s Juppé who feels more threatened, warning of ‘the risks of demagogy and extremism’. Sarkozy, on the other hand, looking to position himself as the outsider to Juppe, the establishment man, said:
‘The message of the American people must be heard. Like the choice of Brexit, it explains the desire for change.’
But the message that best encapsulated the tremors that have shaken the French political establishment today came from Florian Philippot, the deputy of the National Front. Tweeting a photo of his leader he added: ‘Their world is collapsing, ours is being built’.
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