If there is one thing that Trump appointees, and most Trump voters, can get behind, it’s that marriage and babies are good, and falling fertility rates (now 1.57 children per American woman vs replacement level of 2.1), single parenthood and abortion are bad.
The administration has been preparing to announce baby boom policies – possibly in partnership with the Heritage Foundation, masterminds of Project 2025 – and those of us with ovaries are braced. Measures to help make reality the Maga vision of an America re-peopled with big joyful broods and happy families may include a Hungary-style payout of $5,000 (around £4,000) to married new parents; IVF subsidies (Trump called himself the ‘father of IVF’ in 2024), a National Medal of Motherhood for married women with more than six children and the reservation of 30 per cent of Fulbright scholarships for married baby-havers.
The grave economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s own actions is a far greater turn-off than any single handout is an inducement
Not on the list, as has been widely noted by progressives, is the mass investment in post-natal and reproductive healthcare for women that ought to command cross-party support. To say nothing of rescuing and safeguarding abortion, which can be life-saving for women… those very people who may choose to be mothers later.
The Fulbright is a novel idea, but the rest has become pretty standard fare for countries in the West worried about falling birthrates. French policy is perhaps the most effective, according to the Institute of Family Studies, thanks to an 80 year history of excellent and flexible childcare offerings, sizeable tax breaks, payments and retirement benefits. In January, Macron announced the possibility of fertility checks for 20-year-olds (pretty pointless) and a major drive to assist in egg-freezing so that women who either struggle with infertility or simply want to become mothers later can do so (very helpful). The French approach is enlightened and it works; the country has the highest birthrate in Europe, at 1.79 births per woman. Hungary has taken a flashier route, letting couples with their third child off income tax for life, though interestingly Hungary’s birth rate is falling, and now stands at 1.38 per woman. Poland’s Family 500+ program offers £100 per month to families two or more children, in the hopes of boosting what was the EU’s lowest fertility rate in 2015.
Poland may have a blanket abortion ban, but many countries with aggressive pro-natal policies protect abortion rights to some extent. America, since the 2022 overturning of Roe, does not. And this could backfire. For what the Maga folks don’t seem to realise, including the big-breedin’ guys that surround Trump, from transport secretary Sean Duffy (nine kids) to Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth (seven), is that making abortion unavailable dissuades at least some from doing the deed that leads to baby-making in the first place. By contrast, safe in the knowledge that there is an escape hatch, lots of women find themselves getting pregnant – and keeping it.
It remains to be seen if any of Trump’s cited policies will end up being implemented, and whether that would have any real effect on the general population. After all, the affordability crisis, including in healthcare, and the grave economic uncertainty caused by Trump’s own actions, are a far greater turn-off than any single handout of £4,000 (to parents of three) is an inducement.
What does seem to be happening, though, is a micro (and highly smug and performative) cultural baby boom among the young elites of the Trumpiverse. Trump’s 27-year-old press secretary Karoline Leavitt had a baby just four days before beginning her post. Meanwhile, Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna of Florida – she who caused a storm by suggesting that new mothers get to vote by proxy – has come out enthusiastically in favour of the £4,000 bump to new mothers. ‘Let’s do it! More babies = better!’
Don’t get me wrong. I love babies. Since having my own, that is really no exaggeration. But I also love being able to keep reproductive decisions to myself, not pressured to partake in them by a government that thinks the stars and stripes are nothing without married, breeding moms and pops. Having babies is great and I recommend it. But I don’t want either the egomaniacal paternalism of Elon Musk and his fellow pronatalists, nor that of the true believing ethno-nationalist Christian obsessives who think they are working in God’s image, anywhere near that decision. And however noisy the crucifix-wearing Maga breeders are in their political prime just now, I am very, very far from alone. It would heed Trump and his bananas-for-babies crew to remember that. It could just mean more babies.
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