Emmanuel Macron is cornered, his presidency unravelling under relentless pressure. From left and right, there are demands to dissolve the National Assembly or for Macron himself to resign. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s resignation after just 27 days has shattered Macrons fragile coalition. The man who once straddled France’s political divide now faces its united wrath. Yet, in a cruel irony, Macron’s survival may hinge on his nemesis, Marine Le Pen. By calling an election and letting her National Rally form a government, Macron could cling to the Élysée, his power gutted but his title intact, saved by the National Rally he vowed to destroy.
France’s Fifth Republic, designed for strong presidents and obedient parliaments, has rarely looked so fragile
The collapse of Lecornu’s government has not just exposed the limits of Macron’s control but forced him into a political corner. Weeks after the last vote of no confidence, Macron misread the situation and appointed the same Macronists and centrists who have been running the country for years. Thirteen ministers were reappointed from the previous cabinet, many of them the same figures censured by Parliament only weeks ago.
Most damaging of all, Lecornu failed to tell his supposed ally, interior minister Bruno Retailleau, about Bruno Le Maire’s return. Macron’s long-serving finance minister, and the man widely blamed for France’s record deficit, was being brought back as defence minister. Retailleau, furious at the deception, accused Lecornu of having ‘kept it from him’. Within hours, Les Républicains were in open revolt and a coalition that had existed only on paper collapsed for good. By the end of the afternoon, Le Maire himself had submitted his resignation from the unformed cabinet, giving defence duties to Lecornu in a bid to ‘unblock’ the impasse, though the gesture only amplified the farce of a 24-hour ministry.
As the day went on, calls for a general election were coming from every side. Marine Le Pen demanded the immediate dissolution of the National Assembly. Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared the presidency ‘finished’. The Greens joined in. Macron himself remained silent most of the day and was spotted walking alone along the Seine with just his security detail. The symbolism was hard to miss. A president reduced to backroom deals as his government crumbled.
Marine Le Pen faces her own predicament as she navigates the political crisis. The Paris court conviction for embezzling EU funds bars her from running for public office for five years, effectively blocking her from the 2027 presidential race unless an appeal succeeds. She filed her appeal in early April 2025, and the Paris Court of Appeal has scheduled hearings for January-February 2026, aiming for a decision by summer 2026. While she retains her parliamentary seat for now, and denounces the ruling as a political attack, the ban complicates her party’s strategy, potentially elevating the president of the National Rally and her likely successor, Jordan Bardella.
What was meant to be a weekend reshuffle to stabilise the presidency has detonated a constitutional crisis. There is talk of Macron himself being forced out. Marine Le Pen described the situation as ‘a farce that has lasted too long’. Mélenchon wrote on X that ‘Macron’s presidency is an institutional dead-end’ and that ‘he must resign or face impeachment’.
France’s political crisis is now deepening into a financial one. Within hours of Lecornu’s resignation, French bond yields spiked and the CAC 40 index plunged, as investors delivered their own vote of no confidence in Macron. The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds rose above 3.58 per cent while the spread with German Bunds widened to nearly a full percentage point. With a deficit hovering around 6 per cent of GDP and no functioning government to pass a budget, France is facing a serious economic crisis.
Macron’s options are narrowing. In a bid to buy time, Macron has tasked Lecornu himself with leading final negotiations by Wednesday, potentially teeing up the outgoing Prime Minister’s reappointment. This is yet another attempt to recycle ministers that defies logic.
Dissolution of parliament appears Macron’s only plausible path, a final act of control that could at least allow him to dictate the timing of his own reckoning. He can appoint yet another prime minister, or even reappoint Lecornu, but it’s difficult to see how any prime minister can reach a consensus in the current parliament. There was speculation that Macron might appoint a socialist, but the fact is that any appointee would face the same challenges as his or her predecessors. The appointment of a caretaker, or a technocrat to buy time while the opposition tears itself apart, would only prolong the agony. As would Macron reappointing Lecornu and leaving the current government in place, albeit minus Le Maire. Macron might also call elections, hoping that the fragmented opposition divides itself. Or, in a last act of presidential hubris, he might invoke Article 16 of the Constitution, granting himself emergency powers. The idea of ‘governing by decree’ is constitutionally narrow and politically explosive. Article 16 grants emergency powers only in the event of a grave and immediate threat, a condition that clearly doesn’t apply here. But whatever path he takes, Macron’s authority is spent.
France’s Fifth Republic, designed for strong presidents and obedient parliaments, has rarely looked so fragile. The Lecornu debacle has left Macron with absolute power on paper and almost none in practice. He’s a leader who cannot lead, commanding a government that no longer exists, while the country and the markets wait for him to decide whether he still has the nerve to act.
Lecornu’s 48-hour mission to forge a stable government seems doomed. By last night, a cross-party consensus had formed. No new prime minister, whether Lecornu or another, will survive without elections. The opposition, united in its fury, vows censure, leaving Macron’s latest gambit dead on arrival.
If he calls legislative elections, Macron can at least stay in office through the end of his term. If he delays further, the ride may not be so smooth. A decision may be made for him, by the markets, or the streets. And here lies the final irony. The man who built his presidency on the promise to defeat Marine Le Pen may now depend on her to survive. If the National Rally forms a government, Macron would remain president, commander-in-chief, and guardian of France’s foreign policy, while domestic power shifts to his sworn enemy. His term would limp to an end, but at least it would remain intact. The alternative, resignation or paralysis, would mean political annihilation. In the end, it’s Marine Le Pen, not his allies, who offers Macron his only escape.
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