Will the Liberal Democrats avoid being wiped out at the upcoming election? In his latest round of constituency polling, Lord Ashcroft has revisited eight Liberal Democrat marginal constituencies he deems to be close races. Across all the seats, Ashcroft reports there is presently a four per cent swing to the Tories since the last election. Use the interactive chart to see the polls for each constituency.
The picture is mixed for the Lib Dems. In four of the seats — North Cornwall, St Ives, Torbay and Cambridge — they are on track to hold the seats, despite swings to the Conservatives. But the Tories are ahead in two Lib Dem seats: St Austell & Newquay and North Devon, although the Conservatives are ahead by just one point. In the Tory-held ultra-marginal Camborne & Redruth, Ashcroft has found that the Conservatives have consolidated their position and are likely to hold it, after taking it from the Lib Dems in 2010.
But Ashcroft has found that Labour is currently ahead in Sheffield Hallam — represented by one Nick Clegg — with a 19 per cent swing away from the Lib Dems. This continues a trend from his last marginal poll in September 2014, where Ashcroft reported a three point Labour lead. This has since been reduced to two points.
But the main caveat to note is that Ashcroft has not named any candidates — he explains why in his analysis of the poll here. The Liberal Democrats tend to do well as good constituency MPs and their personal followings build up over time — such as Don Foster in Bath and Alan Beith in Berwick-upon-Tweed — which presents the party with a problem as both of those long-serving MPs are standing down. Given that the Labour’s lead in Sheffield is within the margin of error, it’s likely that promoting Clegg’s name would have some positive effect on the Lib Dem vote.
Plus in Sheffield Hallam, 76 per cent of voters said they had heard from the Liberal Democrats, compared to 53 per cent for Labour and just 13 per cent for the Conservatives. The Lib Dems also had better contact rates than the other parties in St Ives and St Austell & Newquay. While it’s impossible to see how the Lib Dems could match their 2010 election result, this polling is probably the best indication in a while that this election might not be dire for the party. It shows the Lib Dems are still in the game and have not fallen too far behind in these key seats. It remains possible they will hold 30-odd seats on May 7.
Comments