The Spectator

Covid-19 update: How many furloughed jobs will come back?

Aperitivo/spritz time in Padua, Italy (Photo: il mattino di Padova)

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News and analysis 
  • The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK rose to 2.1 million in April in the biggest jump since records began in 1971.
  • One in three private sector workers now has some of their wages paid for by the government.
  • The official number of UK coronavirus deaths is now more than 44,000. The number of care home deaths is down 31% on the previous week, according to ONS data.
  • Primary school pupils in Reception, Year 1 and Year 6 may return to school from 1 June. However children from other year groups may no longer receive online teaching as staff will be spread out across smaller classes.
  • The £3.5 billion plan to restore the Palace of Westminster has been paused. Parliament was due to vacate the building for 5 years but the economic fallout from the pandemic may lead to a review.
  • Shakespeare’s Globe Theatre has said it needs £5 million in funding or risks closure.
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‘After spending so much time in isolation I decided to cut it myself.’

How many furloughed jobs will come back?

Today’s figures show those claiming unemployment benefits in Britain rose to 2.1 million in April, up a staggering 70 per cent from March. To this we must add the ‘furlough’ effect. A lot of the jobs that have been ‘suspended’ will not be coming back. Social distancing rules will make many restaurants, theatres, even offices unviable. The big question is: how many?

One answer has been provided by the University of Chicago: more than 40 per cent of the jobs lost during Covid-19 aren’t coming back. No similar study has been carried out in the UK yet – but even the most optimistic scenarios for economic recovery don’t forecast the jobs market to rebound as quickly as GDP.

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