Covid-19 update: The UK’s new hope – a Covid tracker

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News and analysis

The UK is to adopt a South Korean model for exiting the lockdown, and ONS data will be vital to the strategy. James Forsyth has the details below.
UK anxiety levels over Covid-19 are falling, says the ONS.
Boris Johnson will lead his first coronavirus briefing today since contracting the disease.
NHS England has set out its plan to restart non-Covid-19 services.
Child abuse calls to the NSPCC have risen almost 20% since the start of lockdown.
No child has yet transmitted Covid-19 to an adult, a review in partnership with the Royal College of Paediatricians has found. However, a study from Germany finds no significant difference between the viral loads carried by patients in different age ranges, including children.
Tom Moore, made a captain in 1944, has been promoted to colonel on his 100th birthday and received an estimated 140,000 birthday cards.

The UK’s new hope: a Covid-19 tracker
by James Forsyth

The government now has a plan for how it intends to get out of this crisis. It is, as I say in the magazine cover story (out today), to drive the coronavirus transmission rate down as low as possible and then stay on top of it through a ‘track, trace and test’ approach. For this to work, you need accurate data – something which has been sorely lacking to date. But the hope in Whitehall is that clarity is on the way. The Office for National Statistics is undertaking a mass random testing programme that should provide the government with regular data on how many Covid-19 cases there are and which demographics are particularly at risk. Armed with this information from this new Covid-19 tracker, they will no longer be flying blind and can begin formulating policy. Ministers will have the first results from this new survey in the coming days.

The government’s hope is that Covid-19 tracker readings – combined with greater testing and contact tracing – will allow a much more targeted approach in future. So not the sledgehammer option of a national lockdown. Such an approach offers far more flexibility and means that the economic damage should be far more limited in future. But creating a track-test-trace scheme will take time, which means that restrictions are going to be with us for a while.

In Downing Street, they do not think that the process of getting out of lockdown is going to be smooth or quick. Next week’s review will, I understand, see only the mildest easing of the current restrictions – something the Prime Minister will start to lay out today, in his first press conference since falling ill with Covid-19.

In words

FREE AMERICA NOW!

– Elon Musk in a tweet.The Tesla and SpaceX founder has labelled lockdown measures as ‘fascist’.

Video: Mark Rutte’s ‘No, no, no!’

Dutch PM Mark Rutte was asked whether the Italians or the Spanish would be getting any money (‘dat geld’). He replied, ‘No, no, no’ – then laughed and gave a thumbs-up. The Spectator’s diary columnist Steerpike has the details.

Global news

Donald Trump has said China wants him to lose his re-election bid this November. He added that the country faces ‘consequences’ for its handling of the pandemic.
South Korea has reported no new domestic coronavirus cases for the first time since the disease was first recorded in the country.
China’s Forbidden City in Beijing reopens tomorrow.
The Swedish city of Lund will dump a ton of chicken manure in a park to deter visitors.
California is to close all beaches and parks amid fears of crowding, according to a leaked memo.

Datawatch

Research

The symptoms Covid-19 patients suffer range dramatically, from severe headaches, fevers and breathing problems, to barely noticeable ailments, or no symptoms at all. So what determines this range of symptoms from one person to the next? Researchers at Kings College London think genes play a significant role in how badly one is affected by Covid-19, based on a new study which tracked more than 2,500 twins who contracted the virus. Taking into account different households and living conditions, they found genetics explained roughly half of the variations in illness, particularly around whether the person had a fever or lost their sense of taste and smell.

Coronomics

Global energy demand is expected to drop by 6% this year and by 11% in the EU, tracking expected economic shrinkage. The International Energy Agency also expects carbon emissions to fall by 8%.
France’s GDP shrunk by 5.8% in Q1. Spain’s economy contracted by 5.2% and the US economy contracted by 4.8%.
Spotify has gained six million paid subscribers during Q1, while monthly active users increased by 31%. The music-streaming platform now has 130 million paid subscribers.
Norway will cut its oil production by 250,000 barrels per day in June, and 134,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2020.
Meanwhile, shares in Shell fell 6% after the company cut its dividend by two thirds, its first such cut since 1945. Its earnings from oil fell 82% in Q1 while earnings from gas fell 17%.
Stock markets jumped yesterday as hopes for a treatment for coronavirus were bolstered.