It doesn’t take long for visitors to Prague to figure out how the locals feel about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fifteen months since the war started, yellow and blue flags still seem to flutter in almost every city centre street.
The current Czech government – an ideologically varied five-party coalition united by its pro-EU and pro-western outlook – has played its part in supporting Ukraine’s successful war effort. As a proportion of GDP, Czech military aid to Ukraine has been among the most generous in the world. And when I meet Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, who is set to meet UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly this week, he is unequivocal about what a Ukrainian counteroffensive should aim to achieve.
Ukraine joining Nato ‘would not endanger anything other than Russian imperialism.’
‘Ukraine needs to completely liberate its territory within internationally recognised borders from 1991 including Crimea, and to be able to protect its sovereignty. The upcoming offensive, or any other military action, should lead to that objective.’ Anything less, Lipavský says, risks opening ‘a Pandora’s box,’ after which ‘there could be many wars in the world.’
Czech supplies of tanks, armoured personnel carriers, missile systems, ammunition and more have supported Ukraine’s fighting on the ground, while at the political level, Prague has consistently advocated for a ‘European perspective’ on Ukraine, involving Nato and EU membership. Lipavský points to the Nato summit in Lithuania this July as an opportunity to push forward discussions on Ukrainian membership.
‘But let’s be honest,’ he adds, ‘Ukraine is not currently prepared to be a full member of Nato. Even if all allies wanted this, Ukraine is not technically ready. It’s now more about actively looking for the political will for Ukraine to become a Nato member one day, and I wish this would happen.’
I ask whether, with former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev claiming the Ukraine war could last decades, there is not a danger that holding out the prospect of Ukrainian Nato membership will only encourage Russia to prolong the fighting indefinitely, no matter the cost.
Lipavský rejects such concerns. ‘Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia demanded that the security framework return to how it was before 1997,’ he points out. ‘The Czech Republic and other countries joined Nato in 1999, so fulfilling this demand would have meant the complete destruction of the current European security architecture and stripping my country of the sovereignty to decide who we want as our allies.’ Ukraine is ‘mature enough’ to make up its own mind about Nato, he adds, and joining ‘would not endanger anything other than Russian imperialism.’
Technical obstacles remain, however, and they are mirrored in Ukraine’s simultaneous aspiration to join the EU. Ukraine wants an accelerated timetable for joining the bloc, but Lipavský points out that accession ‘also means becoming a member of a union of the rule of law. Ukraine will need to profoundly transform if it wants to become a full member.’
‘This means fighting corruption and fighting nepotism. It means finding better ways for the state to function. It’s a huge challenge. But I think if Zelensky wins the war, he will have the political power to say: “we fought a war for independence and sovereignty, now we need to change our country”.’
To an extent, then, Ukrainian membership in the EU and Nato are projects for the future, the political foundations for which are being laid today.
At the same time, diplomats have to contend with other pressing challenges. Having just returned from a trip to Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Lipavský describes frank exchanges with countries that take a more sceptical view of the war.
‘From the perspective of these countries and others in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, this is a war in Europe. I tell them that we want to do business together, but our ability to do so depends on our security, and this endangers European security. They understand our position, but they also have strong partners in China, for example, or in Africa. It’s important for us to understand their own geopolitical situation, which leads them to call for peace and an end to the fighting. Because from their perspective, that’s what is causing global shocks in terms of the prices of energy and wheat.’
Of all the countries calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine, the most prominent is China, which has tried to position itself a peacemaker by presenting a vague plan for ending the war. Lipavský doesn’t hesitate when asked about Beijing’s proposal. ‘I don’t think China’s peace proposition is anything which can be built upon, because it takes a lot from Russian narratives,’ he says, adding that he ‘fully stands’ behind the ten-point peace plan presented by Zelensky, requiring Ukrainian territorial integrity and the withdrawal of Russian troops.
China’s claims to be a good-faith actor are undermined by its own aggressive stance towards Taiwan – another area of potential conflict on which Czech leaders have taken a strong stance, angering Beijing in recent months through various high-level diplomatic exchanges with Taipei. While ‘active dialogue with the Chinese leadership is necessary’ to prevent a future conflict, Lipavský warns ‘we have a lot of signals that things may go in an opposite direction. We need to be ready even for worst-case scenarios.’
This proactive attitude contrasts sharply with controversial concerns raised recently by French President Emmanuel Macron about the EU becoming ‘America’s followers’ in a China-Taiwan conflict. Lipavský rejects Macron’s fears, saying the Czech government ‘stands on the side that clearly states that we need to be cooperating very actively with the USA. China represents a kind of challenge for which we need to cooperate.’
Is a split emerging within the EU on China, then? ‘I wouldn’t use the word “split”, that would be too strong. We just have different opinions about how to solve the riddle which is in front of us. Even countries calling for more dialogue and an approach that could be labelled as more cooperative with China are very well aware of all the risks connected with it, including technology transfers, dependencies in various sectors such as medicine, artificial intelligence, IT, and data protection. The discussion is not so much “what”, but “how”.’
The EU has fought hard to maintain unity on Ukraine, but Taiwan would be very different from a military, economic, geographical and political standpoint. Nonetheless, Lipavský believes a clear lesson can be taken from the build-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine if the dispute over Taiwan does come to a head.
‘We need to be resolute in protecting our principles. If we work together at the level of the EU, the G7, Aukus – if we’re all cooperating – our measures will be effective. And we need to be ready to use the tools and the powers that we possess.’
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