Who would have thought it? After four Classic races this season on both sides of the Irish Sea, the score between the trainers from the two nations is… Britain 4, Ireland 0. After the Irish routed their British rivals at the Cheltenham festival and with the formidable strength of Aidan O’Brien Co Tipperary yard, that scoreline would not have been predicted by many.
This weekend we see the next two English classics contested on the Epsom Downs
This weekend we see the next two English classics contested on the Epsom Downs: the Betfred Oaks today and the Betfred Derby tomorrow. Although horses from the O’Brien yard head the market for both races, it is not impossible British trainers could come out on top again. From a betting point of view, I hope that is the case.
Since it is only hours away, I will start by scrutinising the Oaks (today, 4.30 p.m.), a Group One contest for 12 of the best three-year-old fillies from both countries. Ylang Ylang is officially the highest rated horse in the race and deserves to be favourite.
She was only fifth in the Qipco 1,000 Guineas but she looks sure to be better suited by the further half mile of today’s contest. Her stablemate Rubies Are Red also has a decent chance of landing the spoils.
Hampshire handler Ralph Beckett goes into the race with no less than four runners of which the unbeaten Forest Fairy is likely to prove the pick of the quartet.
At the odds, however, I would prefer to back SECRET SATIRE for the Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy trainer/jockey combination. Secret Satire was a 22-1 outsider when she landed the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes earlier this month. That Group Three York contest is often the best trial for Epsom and the stand-out statistic for me is that the last three winners of the race went on to be first, second and first again in the Oaks.
Secret Satire’s breeding suggests she is a doubtful stayer but she hit the winning line hard at York and, at double figure odds, I am happy to take a chance on her stamina. Furthermore, the second at York, Francophone, boosted the form by winning a listed race at Goodwood last Saturday.
Back Secret Satire each way at 12-1 with bet365, Paddy Power or Betfred, all paying four places. There are odds of 14-1 out there but with fewer places.
Moving on to tomorrow, City of Troy is by far the most interesting runner in the Derby (Epsom, 4.30 p.m.). There are not many horses which, after bombing at odds on for the Qipco 2000 Guineas with no obvious excuse, would be vying for favouritism next time out in Britain’s biggest flat race of the year.
However, Aidan O’Brien is training genius so when he says his charge is the most exciting horse he has ever handled, it is worth sitting up and taking note. City of Troy’s ninth of 11 runners, beaten nearly 17 lengths in the Newmarket Classic, was clearly too bad to be true and he will almost certainly step up considerably on that run.
Yet odds of around 7-2, when his stamina has to be taken on trust too and he has a difficult draw in stall one, can hardly be described as ‘great value’ and it is not surprising that his unbeaten stablemate, Los Angeles, could go off favourite tomorrow even though stable jockey Ryan Moore has stayed loyal to City of Troy. I won’t be backing either horse, however.
In reality tomorrow’s race, worth the best part of £900,000 to the winner, is wide open and liable to an upset. Charlie Appleby’s Ancient Wisdom has to have a big shout on the strength of his form last season even though he was firmly put in his place by Economics in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York earlier this month. But, once again, odds of around 6-1 hardly scream value, especially as he will not have his favoured very soft ground, and I am happy to look elsewhere.
The once-raced Voyage, trained by the in-form Richard Hannon, is an interesting contender at 20-1 after his surprise win at Newbury in April, as is Dancing Gemini from Roger Teal’s Lambourn yard. Unfortunately, neither horse is guaranteed to stay the mile and a half of the Derby on ground currently described as ‘good to soft’ but which may dry further before the off.
The William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial, over a similar trip and course to the Derby, often gives pointers to Epsom so I am, on balance, going to side with AMBIENTE FRIENDLY from the yard of veteran trainer James Fanshawe.
It is hard not to feel sympathy for jockey Callum Shepherd after being ‘jocked off’ despite winning the Lingfield race by four and a half lengths at odds of 8-1 but the owners – in this case the Gredley family – call the shots and so Rab Havlin will be in the saddle tomorrow.
Fanshawe says tomorrow’s contest is ‘the most important race we’ve ever had a runner in’ but the Newmarket trainer is a cool customer and he knows how to get the best out of a good horse.
There is certainly nothing wrong with the Lingfield form and the third in the race, Meydaan, franked it in spades at Goodwood last week, when he landed a listed race for his father-and son-trainers, Simon and Ed Crisford. The time of the Lingfield Derby Trial was very respectable too so there is a lot to like about Ambient Friendly’s chances.
Back him each way for the Derby at 13-2 with William Hill or Betfred, both paying four places. I have been sweet all week on the chances of two horses in tomorrow’s Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Epsom 2 p.m.): Sparks Fly from the Shropshire yard of David Loughnane, and BREEGE, who is a stable favourite of the North Yorkshire the father-and-son training team of John and Sean Quinn.
I had expected to suggest backing both horses each way but Sparks Fly has all but halved in odds over the past three days and the going is unlikely to be quite as soft as she would like, so I am only going to put up Breege against the favourite, Running Lion.
Sean Quinn reported last month that Breege, a four-year-old filly, had come back bigger and stronger than she was last year when she was runner up three times in decent races, including at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. I am hopeful she can reverse the form with Royal Dress on their run at Goodwood earlier this month. Back Breege in tomorrow’s Group 3 contest at 15/2 with William Hill, paying three places.
The Aston Martin ‘Dash’ Handicap (tomorrow, 3.45 p.m.), over the downhill five-furlong track, is a race that I love to watch each year. In-form trainer Karl Burke has two big chances of landing the spoils in this contest.
Stable jockey Clifford Lee has remained loyal to Silky Wilkie, who was second in this race last year, beaten in a photo finish. Burke’s other runner, Looking for Lynda, also has strong course and distance form and will be in the capable hands of Hollie Doyle tomorrow.
On balance, however, I prefer the chances of Clarendon House for Robert Cowell, the so-called ‘sprint king’, even though the trainer has never won the ‘Dash’. Clarendon House was third in this race last year too, but, at odds of 13-2 or less, I can easily pass on this race.
Those who follow my tips will also have an interest in the result of the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club, or ‘French Derby’, at Chantilly on Sunday. I put up Ghostwriter each way at 16-1 a week ago and he is now trading at around 5-1. My worry is the ground in France may be too soft for him but here’s hoping he runs a big race.
Next week I will be putting up ante-post bets for Royal Ascot and I already have a couple of really strong early fancies for this wonderful meeting.
Pending:
1 point each way Secret Satire at 12-1 in the Oaks, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Breege at 15-2 in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Ambiente Friendly at 13-2 in the Derby, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Ghostwriter at 16-1 in the Prix du Jockey Club, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 1.2 points.
2 points win Rogue Lightning at 5-1 in the Temple Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Emiyn at 9-1 in Nifty 50 Hell Nook Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 3rd. + 0.8 points.
2024 flat season running total + 5.8 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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