Andrew Bacevich

Diplomacy by deference

Trump’s actions are constrained by what Saudi and Israeli leaders are willing to tolerate

Iran’s seizure of a British-owned oil tanker transiting the Persian Gulf has let loose a fresh round of media war chatter. Yet should another Persian Gulf War actually occur, who would benefit? Not America, that’s for sure.

The central theme of present-day US policy regarding Iran is deference. Nominally, US policy is made in Washington. Substantively, it is framed in Riyadh and Jerusalem, with the interests of the United States figuring only minimally in determining the result.

I am not suggesting that President Donald Trump supinely complies with secret marching orders from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Indeed, MBS and Netanyahu are both careful to uphold the pretence that the United States is the senior partner in their respective bilateral relationships. Yet it is manifestly the case that the United States today will undertake no action regarding Iran that Saudi and Israeli leaders find objectionable.

Trump’s predecessor was the exception who affirmed this rule. The Iran nuclear deal represented Barack Obama’s effort to reclaim a measure of autonomy in the formulation of US policy. Saudi Arabia and Israel fiercely objected to his initiative. Ever so briefly, Obama seemed to prevail. Yet his victory proved more apparent than real. Trump’s repudiation of that Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) showed who the real victors were.

By most measures, the United States is the most powerful nation on the planet, certainly wielding more power than Iran or Saudi Arabia or Israel. Yet in this circumstance, power does not translate into freedom of action. As a practical matter, the policy options available to the United States in the Persian Gulf and more broadly in the Middle East are constrained by what Saudi and Israeli leaders are willing to tolerate.

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