Do the forecasts point to an early election?

The CBI have come out with another set of gloomy forecasts this morning, by which the recession will be “deeper and longer lasting” than previously thought.  They predict that the economy will contract by 1.7 percent in 2009 and that unemployment will hit just under 3 million in 2010.  

It’s still something that I think unlikely, but every forecast such as this strengthens the increasingly popular idea that Brown will call an early election.  Not only will he find it more difficult to maintain his Economic Saviour narrative as the recession worsens and unemployment skyrockets.  But also – if he waits – then the very real possibility of other countries recovering quicker than the UK will shatter his claim that we’re “best placed” to deal with this downturn.  Watch this space.