Considering the size of the swing to the Tories last night, it no longer seems silly to talk about a leadership challenge to Gordon Brown. But Michael White’s analysis this morning neatly sums up why an actual challenge—as opposed to talk of one—is still unlikely:
“Can Labour MPs and their union paymasters, busy flexing their muscles again, get rid of Brown? In theory, yes. It would take 70 or so names to trigger a confidence vote. But who is there to take over, who could make a significant difference, even – unlikely – if the prime minister decided to walk? Most Labour MPs have no more experience of a political downturn than they do of a recession. There will be a lot of talk – up to cabinet level – but little more at this stage. Why? It is not obvious who or what the answer is. Brown may be like Jim Callaghan, fated to follow a powerful premier – Harold Wilson – but unable to win his own mandate. That election wobble, speculation allowed to run too long last autumn, may have been the real turning point, Crewe the mere confirmation.”
The one thing that might prompt someone to stand is the growing consensus that Brown simply can’t recover from this position. The size of the Tory lead after the conference season could be key in determining Brown’s fate.
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