After a better-than-expected conference speech, Theresa May has given her premiership a much needed boost. Only it seems not everyone wants her turn in fortune to continue. This afternoon, Donald Tusk took to social media, following a press conference with the Taoiseach, to bring the Prime Minister back down to earth with a an unhelpful tweet about the Brexit negotiations. Adopting the words of Brexiteers including David Davis, the EU council leader said Brussels has always been happy to offer a ‘Canada+++ deal’ and that this offer was ‘a true measure of respect’:
From the very beginning, the EU offer has been a Canada+++ deal. Much further-reaching on trade, internal security and foreign policy cooperation. This is a true measure of respect. And this offer remains in place. #brexit
— Charles Michel (@eucopresident) October 4, 2018
While anti-Chequers Brexiteers have been quick to praise this offer, it’s rather doubtful that No 10 feels the same – or that it constitutes a ‘true measure respect’. Downing Street’s issue with the Tusk free trade deal offer is that it doesn’t apply to the whole of the UK. While Brussels is open to an expansive trade deal for great Britain, that does not extend to Northern Ireland – an area they wish to keep in regulatory alignment with the EU on the grounds of the need to avoid a hard border. That hasn’t changed.
There are some Brexiteer MPs who think that with Chequers widely rejected, it would be best to pivot to a free trade deal and then work on the Irish border after. The DUP have made clear that they will accept no regulatory checks in the Irish sea so a Canada-style deal as stands is intolerable to them – and pushing such a plan could collapse May’s government.
So, what is behind the Tusk tweet? It’s a worrying sign that a fortnight before the EU council summit – where progress must be made to get to the big Brexit summit in November – figures in Brussels are not at pains to help May out. It’s going to be a rocky few weeks.
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