Two years ago, Volodymyr Zelensky was hailed as a hero in America. He was the man who stood up to Putin, who saw off the pillar of Russian tanks advancing on Kyiv – the man who’d fight the revanchist autocracy so the West didn’t have to. How times have changed. To a great many in Washington he is now a liability, a hustler, someone trying to pour American money and his countrymen’s lives into an unwinnable war. An increasing number of Republicans are making him the scapegoat for a war that only the Kremlin can end.
The outcome of next month’s US presidential election will be watched more closely in Ukraine than perhaps even in America. Kamala Harris has pledged to do ‘everything’ to help Ukraine win the war. Donald Trump has slammed Zelensky for refusing to ‘make a deal’ with Russia and promised to end the conflict ‘immediately’ by making a good deal for ‘both sides’. Just what that means in the context of an invaded country is hard to tell.
No alternative can offer Kyiv the level of security that Nato membership would provide
China has also been busy, teaming up with Brazil to launch the ‘Friends of Peace’ platform proposing to freeze the fighting. Hungary, Switzerland, Turkey, Mexico, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are already backing it. Zelensky sees this is a euphemism for giving Putin his conquests – then time to rearm and return. ‘Maybe somebody wants a Nobel Prize for a frozen truce instead of real peace’, he said last week. ‘The only prizes Putin will give you in return are more suffering and disasters’.
Zelensky’s own ‘victory plan’ aims to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position. He went to Washington last week seeking permission to strike Russian military bases using British Storm Shadow and American ATACMS missiles. Boosting Ukraine’s military capabilities will disrupt Russian advances on the front line, with the hope of creating a deadlock that could compel Putin to seek diplomatic solutions. The word is that Biden administration officials are unpersuaded. Kyiv’s dream of fast-track Nato membership was shattered last week by Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan who said that the US and other Nato members ‘don’t want Ukraine to be a member state’.
Ukrainians know the difference between genuine peace and delayed, but certain, war. Zelensky had his first and only meeting with Putin in Paris five years ago where he asked him to withdraw Russian troops from Donbas. A ceasefire was agreed upon – the third after the failures of Minsk-1 and Minsk-2. This one didn’t work either. Still, Ukraine kept asking for talks right up until the point when hundreds of Ukrainian civilians were massacred in Bucha in March 2022. Asking for peace had a radicalising effect on Moscow: Putin saw Zelensky as a weak leader and Ukraine as an easy prey.
When the Kremlin sees weakness, it escalates. Over 3,200 civilians were injured in Ukraine this summer with almost 600 killed. Last month was the first when the country was under drone attacks every single day. This is Putin’s strategy: to cause unbearable suffering to the civilian population to force them to give up. He’s upping Russia’s defence budget by 25 per cent next year and plans to draft over 130,000 recruits over the autumn. Freshly-supplied Iranian missiles are being saved for winter attacks.
Last week, Zelensky told the United Nations general assembly that Russia intends to attack three nuclear power plants ahead of winter. In recent weeks, Russian drones have been flying low over nuclear facilities, exploring them, a pattern similar to attacks on thermal power plants, all of which have now been destroyed. Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is already on the verge of blackout after a Russian attack cut off a power line to the facility this week. When temperatures drop below zero soon, Ukrainians will have to endure hours without electricity, heat, or water.
The threat to Ukrainian nuclear facilities is seen by Kyiv’s allies as less escalatory than Zelensky seeking permission to strike deep into Russia with western missiles. Washington continues to set ‘red lines’ for Ukraine while avoiding any clear stance on the West’s own red lines with Moscow. This leaves uncertainty about when Russia’s actions will be considered serious enough for allies to increase their support for Ukraine. The missile attack on the children’s cancer hospital in Kyiv in July once again proved that the Kremlin is allowed to commit all kinds of atrocities with no consequences.
In a video message this week, addressing his people to ‘celebrate the day of reunification with Russia’ of Ukraine’s four partially-occupied regions, Putin said that ‘all the intended goals will be achieved’ in the country. His terms remain the same: that Ukraine gives up some 20 per cent of its territory, shrinks its army and declares neutrality. Ukrainians see acceptance of these conditions as suicide. Some 91 per cent of Ukrainians polled in June believe that Russia would simply bide its time to prepare for a new offensive, while 86 per cent think Russia is likely to attack again even if a peace treaty is signed.
The greatest challenge to securing lasting peace in Europe lies in preventing Russia from continually invading Ukraine in the years and decades to come. The reality is that no alternative can offer Kyiv the level of security that Nato membership would provide. However, Hungary’s Viktor Orban could single-handedly block any effort to secure Ukraine’s accession, even if just the unoccupied territories were to join. The allies would also need to keep supplying Ukraine with weapons, strengthening its air defences, and delivering Nato-level military training. A powerful, well-equipped military is Ukraine’s best deterrent against future aggression. Like Israel and Taiwan, Ukraine must maintain a fully prepared army at all times.
Ukrainians would be far more open to dialogue if a concrete security package were on the table. The public debate won’t begin while the country is offered pinky promises and vague assurances. At home, Zelensky also needs to be more honest. The dream of complete victory has sustained high morale for a very long time, but it’s crucial to confront reality and adjust expectations on time. Four out of five Ukrainians have now lost a family member or friend due to hostilities. It is hard to say how much more grief and suffering the nation will be able to endure.
There is no quick way out of this war, and rushed agreements will bring temporary solutions. Ukraine may never have a better opportunity to fight off Putin than it does now – until Russia replenishes its losses. While allies decide which path to take, the country is bracing for a long, dark season: the upcoming winter will be the hardest in almost three years of full-scale war. Last week, Zelensky tried to reassure the nation that it is almost over, that ‘we are closer to peace than we think’. ‘We just have to be very, very strong’, he said. But as things stand, few at home believed him.
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