It’s just a single poll, sure — but Ipsos MORI’s latest is still fairly eye-catching stuff. And this is why: it has the
Tories level with Labour for the first time since October. Anthony Wells serves up a pinch of salt over at UK Polling Report, saying
that this “unusual” result is most likely down to the weightings that are used. But, technicalities aside, any poll that puts the Tories close to Labour, at this stage in the political
cycle, is going to be greeted cheerily by Cameron & Co. – and less so by Team Miliband.
It’s not all bad news for Ed Miliband, though. His personal ratings have improved since last month; a fact which deepens one of the conundrums of his reign. When I sifted through the Ipsos MORI data in January, it seemed that Miliband’s numbers were falling as his party’s rose. Now, the opposite is the case:
The lesson? Nothing, really. It’s just a quirk that emerges out of the polls. But it’s a quirk that cuts gently against Miliband, either way. If the Tories overtake Labour, then he’ll catch the flak regardless of his own ratings. If Labour stay ahead, while his own ratings fall, then some might suggest it’s in spite of — rather than because of — his stewardship. In that event, Miliband might be left repeating the (already repetitive) final line of his Guardian interview today: “It is not true, it is just not true, I am not going to say it because it is not the case.”
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