One of the overlooked elements of the PBR was the Chancellor’s assertion that Britain would be out of recession by the third quarter of 2009. This offered a metric against which the PBR and the other measures Labour have taken can be judged; if the country is still in recession then it will be reasonable to say that they have failed.
This is one of the reasons why some Tories expect Brown to go in 2009. Andrew Grice sums up the early election speculation in the Independent today:
“Privately, Tories fret about a mid-recession 2009 election, with the Prime Minister seeking a “doctor’s mandate” to complete the patient’s recovery. Their fears have been enhanced by a slimline Queen’s Speech this week, which gave the impression of a party preparing for an election. Not true, Cabinet ministers insist: the aim was to avoid backbench rebellions and Mr Brown is not thinking about an election. They have to say that, don’t they? He got into such a pickle last time he allowed election speculation to run that he’ll be telling us he’s only thinking about the economy even if we get to May 2010.”
Certainly, the Tories would prefer to fight in 2010. By then the crisis phase will have passed and the extent of Brown’s economic mismanagement will be clearer. But, as Grice notes, the problem for Brown is that he has form with election speculation. If the Tories can stoke speculation sufficiently, Brown will feel obliged to rule it out: remember how close he came to doing so just before the PBR.
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