Today’s ComRes poll for the Independent has the Tories on 39 percent (down 1 from the ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday a couple of weeks back); Labour on 31 percent (no change); and the Lib Dems on 16 percent (no change). That means the Tory lead has been more than halved in the past two months, and that they’re now in hung parliament territory – all encouraging enough for Labour.
But despite the “Brown bounces back” headline in the Indy, there’s no need for the Tories to get disheartened just yet. This poll was conducted in the aftermath not only of the most positive coverage Brown’s received since the early days of his premiership, but also of the Yachtgate scandal – perhaps indicating that George Osborne’s “mistake” in Corfu hasn’t cost the party too dear (although, on that front, we’ll get a fuller picture as more polls are released). And then there are the blots on Brown’s horizon, which threaten to spoil our PM’s second honeymoon period.
As Tim Montgomerie argues over at ConservativeHome, the key for the Tories now is to develop a more coherent response to the economic downturn. If they can manage that, then there’s every chance that Brown’s upwards momentum will be arrested.
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