As expected, the backbench Tory campaign for an EU referendum bill started as soon as the Queen’s Speech proved not to contain one. The first battle is over an amendment expressing regret which John Baron, who is leading the charge on this, has tabled. The amendment, to the motion welcoming the Queen’s Speech, simply reads:
‘Respectfully regrets that an EU referendum bill was not included in the gracious speech.’
This means that all Tory MPs who want a referendum, but in a different form, such as the mandate referendum that Bernard Jenkin and others have pushed for, can still sign the amendment. Baron tells me that he hasn’t decided whether to push the amendment to a vote next week, but it seems there are plenty of Tory backbenchers who are expecting him to do so.
All the indications seem to be that if it did come to a vote, the Tory leadership wouldn’t seek to whip against it. The Prime Minister’s official spokesman’s response to this latest development was to try to appear as unconcerned as possible. He said:
‘The amendment has only just been tabled and he will want to consider it carefully, but he’s already said he’s very happy to look at all ways of strengthening his commitment to a referendum in the next Parliament.’
This is because Downing Street has been sending backbenchers heavy hints that if there is any way of getting an EU referendum vote in the Commons, then they’re welcome to pursue that avenue. And backbenchers aren’t just hoping they can use the private member’s bill ballot for this, they’re also considering tacking amendments onto other pieces of legislation going through Parliament, in the same way as peers did with Leveson. Baron tells me:
‘That’s another method, but it would have to be a relevant piece of legislation.’
Unlike the amendment to the Queen’s Speech, tacking on demands for a referendum onto a real Bill would be a powerful way of really bringing matters to a head in the Commons. The Tory whips may decide to be relaxed about Baron’s ‘regret’ motion, possibly even allowing ministers to support it, because it means nothing. But any legislative amendments would force the leadership to take a real position on something with a real impact. And this is what backbenchers are hoping: they are suspicious that Downing Street is trying to ‘buy us off with sweeties and hope we’ll shut up’, as one Tory MP put it. This campaign is becoming as much a test of the Prime Minister’s resolve to back his own MPs as it is one for legislative underpinning for a referendum.
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