Falling net migration: A trap for future governments?

Today’s migration statistics show a marked decline in net migration to the UK (down 34 per cent to 163,000 in the year to June 2012). Although this still leaves the Government some way off their target of reducing net migration to less than 100,000 by 2015, ministers will be pleased to be able to say that things are, in their terms, moving in the right direction.

But there is a catch, and the simple maths of net migration mean that the current Government may be, wittingly or unwittingly, laying a trap for themselves, or for a future one.

Net migration is the difference between immigration and emigration.  So net migration rises if immigration goes up, or if emigration goes down; and falls if immigration goes down, or if emigration goes up.

The current falls in net migration are largely being driven by falling immigration, rather than rising emigration.