Which party should be the most worried about next year’s local elections in May? Despite winning a large majority this year, they could prove tricky for Labour – with Keir Starmer seeing his personal ratings drop to -30 in his first 100 days. But Labour blues don’t necessarily translate into wins for the Conservatives. Instead, Nigel Farage is looking to use the local elections to cement Reform’s status as the real opposition.
With all 21 county councils in England up for election, the Reform party leader has written to every Tory councillor facing re-election, calling on them to defect to Reform UK. In a letter sent to the 1,352 Tory councillors, Farage writes that the Tory party is a ‘busted flush’:
‘The Conservative party is a busted flush – these 1,352 councillors are watching their time in office tick away, whilst they argue between themselves on whether to choose a leader that’s undergone a Damascene political conversion and a someone who won’t leave the ECHR. I urge any Conservative party councillors who believe in their country and share our values to join Reform UK as we build on the extraordinary inroads we made at the general election.’
The invitation comes as Farage’s party looks to professionalise, setting up hundreds of local branches as it seeks to build bases and find new candidates. Notably, Farage makes clear that the offer remains regardless of the winner of the Tory leadership contest – with the attack lines for either candidate winning becoming clear. The Reform party leader suggests Badenoch is not worth following as she won’t commit to leaving the ECHR while Jenrick is not worthy of support as he is inauthentic.
There’s another thing that’s striking about Farage’s pitch. In the days after the general election, he suggested that questions about Tory MP defections were neither here nor there as his party was focused on building its own base. As the party looks to secure the necessary number of candidates needed for the locals, and to avoid some of the vetting problems that dogged the party during the general election campaign, existing Tory councillors would be an easy practical fix as well as a political win.
All of this points to the uphill task the new Conservative leader will face next month. They don’t just need to oppose Labour – they will also have to stop Labour pains becoming an opportunity for the Reform party (which came second in 98 constituencies by eating into the Tory vote) to assert itself as a serious political force.
Listen to more analysis from Katy Balls on Coffee House Shots, The Spectator’s daily politics podcast:
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