James Forsyth James Forsyth

Final polls put No ahead

The last YouGov poll of the campaign, which has a far larger than usual sample size, has No ahead 52-48. The last phone poll of the campaign, a Survation effort, has No up 53-47. So, the No campaign is ahead by a clear but small margin.

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The Sun’s political editor Tom Newton Dunn reports that YouGov finds that men in Scotland favour independence 54 to 46 but women back the Union 57 to 43. Its numbers show that only 4 per cent of voters remain undecided. Interestingly, those from the rest of the UK who have moved to Scotland—those living the Union—are voting No by a 72 to 28 landslide. By contrast, Scottish born Scots are split 50/50 on the independence question. But, perhaps, the most remarkable number is that Cameron is now, albeit by a point, more trusted in Scotland than Ed Miliband.

Tonight’s poll will add to the confidence of Better Together that they are going to pull this off. They feel that the late undecideds will break heavily to them meaning that their margin of victory will be more comfortable than the polls suggest. We will find out in the wee hours of Friday morning if they are right.

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