Throughout the Brexit talks it has been declared that the deal wouldn’t fall over fish. But that is now looking increasingly likely. The two sides remain far apart on the subject and time is running short.
Fishing is not the only issue, there are still some disagreements over the Commission’s desire to exempt itself and the European Investment Bank from the subsidy control provisions of the agreement when the UK would have no such carve out. But fish is the most problematic area.
Johnson is prepared to leave without a deal over the fishing issue
The EU, as Michel Barnier made clear this morning, are insisting on an fisheries transition period of eight years, a limited uplift to the UK quota and the right to impose tariffs on British goods if European fleets see their access to these waters cut at the end of this period. This position infuriates the UK side. They want both a more meaningful increase in quota and a shorter transition; the eight year transition means that the UK wouldn’t regain control over its waters until a dozen years after this country voted to leave.
It is expected that Boris Johnson and the Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will speak again within the next 48 hours. It is unlikely that this call will be the one that resolves things. But the UK side are looking for a sign that the EU is willing to negotiate seriously on the issue.
There is often a view on the continent that, ultimately, the British won’t no deal over fish. But this is a misreading of the situation. Boris Johnson is prepared to do so. He feels that he has moved to reassure the Europeans on the level playing field and that they should now act on fish.
As Barnier said this morning, it would be odd if things were going smoothly this late in the negotiations; there was always going to be some last minute brinksmanship. But it is worth appreciating that Johnson is prepared to leave without a deal over the fishing issue.
If the UK leaves without an agreement, it is hard to imagine the negotiations resuming anytime soon. Politically, Johnson could not go back and accept the terms he is currently being offered after a few months of no deal – doing that would break him politically. So, the UK and the EU would be in for a long and rancorous period of trading on World Trade Organisation terms. The fallout from this would poison UK /EU relations for years. Both sides should remember the big picture and strive to avoid that.
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