The two staying handicaps on day one of Royal Ascot – the Ascot Stakes and the Copper Horse Stakes – are always among my favourite betting races of the week. In both of today’s races, I first look out for a horse that is well handicapped on the flat compared with its hurdles form.
Willie Mullins’ Poniros most certainly ticks that box having won the JCB Triumph Hurdle at 100-1 before showing that was no fluke being second to his old rival Luamba in the equivalent Grade 1 event at the Punchestown festival early last month. Poniros undoubtedly has a big chance of landing the Ascot Stakes (5 p.m.) but odds of no bigger than 11-2 are too skinny for this competitive 20-runner race, especially given the fact that he can be very keen and so he may not stay this marathon trip of two miles four furlongs.
Willie Mullins other runner, Reaching High, is the likely favourite and would be a popular winner as he is owned by the King and Queen, while East India Dock is also still well handicapped on his hurdles form, notably when third to Poniros is the Triumph Hurdle in March. However, once again odds of no bigger than 7-2 on Reaching High and no bigger than 11-2 on East India Dock make little appeal.
At double-figure odds, I prefer to back NURBURGRING for the Joseph O’Brien/Colin Keane trainer/jockey combination. This five-year-old gelding has been disappointing a few times on the flat but if he can produce the form of his win in the Galway Hurdle last August, he has a real chance of landing this pot off a flat rating of just 93. Back him 1 point each way at 14-1 with bet365, paying five places.
I was tempted to go in double-handed with my old friend Zoffee but, aged nine, he is back to a near career-high flat mark of 94 after his run when third in the Chester Cup early last month. He’s also better around Chester’s twists and turns than Ascot so, even with the benefit of Oisin Murphy in the saddle, I will resist the temptation to back him too.
In the Copper Horse (6.10 p.m.), the horse well handicapped on his hurdles form is the Irish raider JESSE EVANS, trained by Noel Meade. He is nine years old now and shouldn’t, in theory, be improving but there was plenty to like about his victory over hurdles last month at Ballinrobe. Oisin Orr takes the ride and so back this horse too, one point each way at 12-1 with bet365, BetVictor or Unibet, all paying five places.
Once again, this is a very open betting race. Willie Mullins’ runner Charlus has to be respected given he is the Irish maestro’s only runner in the race. Father and son training team John and Thady Gosden have an improving four-year-old in the form of French Master and he is likely to go off favourite today while My Mate Mozzie, aided by a 5lb allowance claimed by top apprentice Warren Fentiman, could also be in the shake-up as he was third in this race last year off a similar mark. Of the outsiders, Champagne Prince is well handicapped on turf if he can translate his all-weather form to grass and he has been well supported in the market too.
However, I have long been sweet on the chances of CABALLO DE MAR in this race for the George Scott/Callum Shepherd trainer/jockey team. This horse ran a cracker when second to the impossibly-well-handicapped East India Dock in the Chester Cup.
That was his only defeat in his last seven starts and since then he has come out and won at Haydock in order to go up a few lbs in the ratings so that he would make the cut for this race. This is a tough and improving four-year-old who might just appreciate a slightly longer trip than this one mile six furlongs. However, back him two points win at 13-2 with 888sport.
In the King Charles III Stakes (3.40 p.m.) for the speedsters over five furlongs, Asfoora and Regional, first and second in this contest a year ago, re-oppose and both have strong chances of winning. However, I am going to give AMERICAN AFFAIR one last chance of proving that he is up to this Group 1 class as a sprinter.
After a couple of comfortable handicap wins, Jim Goldie’s five-year-old gelding was slightly disappointing last time out when only fifth at Haydock in the Group 2 Betfred Temple Stakes. However, he got baulked at a crucial time in that contest.
As a hold-up horse, he will always need luck in running especially in this 22-runner race but 1 point each way at 16-1 is the recommendation, those odds are being offered by Ladbrokes, paying four places.
But, once again, I am going to go in double-handed in the race with MGHEERA who is unbeaten in her two starts for Ed Walker’s high-flying Lambourn yard. As when landing the Temple Stakes at Haydock, she will have William Buick in the saddle. Back her one point each way at 9-1 with Willliam Hill, again paying four places. She is also a hold-up horse so she will need luck in running too.
As of Friday, I put up two horses for day one: Docklands each way at 25-1 in the Queen Anne Stakes (2.30 p.m.) and Rashagar each way at 25-1 in the St James’s Palaces Stakes (4.20 p.m.). This latter race has cut up to seven runners so the advantage of betting ante-post was to get three places on Brian Meehan’s horse not two as now offered by the bookies.
The Coventry Stakes (3.05 p.m.) and the Wolferton Stakes (5.05 p.m.) are too hard for me to have a view on but I will be back tomorrow morning with tips for day two of Royal Ascot.
Pending:
1 point each way Docklands at 25-1 for the Queen Anne, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way American Affair at 16-1 for the King Charles III, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Mgheera at 9-1 for the King Charles III, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Rashabar at 25-1 for the St James’s Palace, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Nurburgring at 14-1 for the Ascot Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Jesse Evans at 12-1 for the Copper Horse, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
2 points win Caballo de Mar at 13-2 for the Copper Horse.
1 point each way Spicy Marg at 16-1 for the Queen Mary, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Native Warrior at 50-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Trawlerman at 8-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Elite Status at 25-1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Duke of Oxford at 33-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Who’s Glen at 16-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
2025 flat season running total: – 5 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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