The big sprint races of the season have repeatedly thrown up surprise results, most notably when 66-1 shot No Half Measures landed the Group 1 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup Stakes at Newmarket last month over six furlongs.
So, with no horse able to dominate the sprint division this summer, it makes no sense to take a short price on any horse for this afternoon’s Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (3.35 p.m.) run over five furlongs at York.
I was tempted to put up Richard Hughes’ three-year-old filly Sayidah Dariyan after her fine run at the course last month when landing the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes, but odds of no bigger than 7-1 means I will look elsewhere for value.
Night Raider will surely come good at some stage but even a trainer as astute as Karl Burke has struggled to find his best distance, running him in the Qipco 2000 Guineas over a mile last year before reverting him to sprint trips this season.
He did win his race on the near side last month when sixth in the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood but only three other runners stayed with him on the near side and so that form is anything but rock solid. Furthermore, odds of no bigger than 12-1 are also on the skinny side. Don’t rule out Jonny Portman’s sprinter, Rumstar, if he is on a going day but he is a hit-or-miss performer.
On balance, however, I will take a chance with Ed Walker’s CELANDINE even though she might prefer six furlongs to five and looks to have a less-than-ideal draw in stall 16. This three-year-old filly is highly rated by her handler and has run two of her best races at York.
She is also lightly-raced this season, will have her ideal fast ground and has the help of Tom Marquand in the saddle. Back Celandine one point each way at 22-1 with Sky Bet, paying five places. Other bookies are three points bigger but offering one less place.
Jockey David Egan has a good record when riding for trainer Richard Spencer, notably winning Ascot’s Moet & Chandon International Handicap and Goodwood’s Coral Stewards’ Cup in the space of eight days on the stable’s horse Two Tribes.
In the last race at York today, the Sky Bet Mile Handicap (5.20 p.m.), the jockey-trainer duo team up again with YAH MO BE THERE who has run a couple of big races at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood, without much luck in running on the latter occasion.
Today could be the day when this lightly-raced three-year-old colt comes good so back him one point each way at 6-1 with bet365, paying five places.
Tomorrow’s big race at York is the Sky Bet Ebor (3.35 p.m.), Europe’s richest flat handicap over a distance of one mile six furlongs. As usual, it’s a hugely competitive contest with any number of plot horses from both sides of the Irish Sea.
Hipop De Loire is the most likely winner of the race but is too short for me at no bigger than 3-1. Other Irish raiders with a chance include Ascending, whose handler Henry de Bromhead trained the winner of this race in Magical Zoe last year, and Kihavah, who was second in the race last year but is 9lbs higher in the ratings 12 months on.
The home (British) trainers have some decent entries too including Almosh’her, who has had a break after being gelded, and top-weight French Master, from the all-conquering father and son training team of John and Thady Gosden. At a huge price, don’t rule out David O’Meara’s Stressfree who is better than he has shown in his last three runs.
I put up Majestic Warrior two weeks ago at 25-1, five places, and on balance I will stick only with that horse since my other ante-post tip, Plage De Havre, is a non-runner, presumably after a set-back as this race was tailor-made for trainer Andrew Balding’s talented four-year-old gelding. The other race on York’s Saturday card that I always love to try to find the winner of is the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (2.25 p.m.) for three-year-olds over the same distance as the Ebor.
Yorkshire handler Ed Bethell has had this race in mind for TALISMANS TIME for several months and he has managed to get his light-raced gelding into it off a nice mark of 85 despite being unbeaten in two runs this season. The trip and ground conditions should be ideal and so back Talismans Time one point each way at 10-1 with Betfred, Sky Bet, Paddy Power or Betfair, all paying four places.
However, I am going to go into this race double-handed as I also have SEA OF KINGS in my horse tracker after his luckless run at Glorious Goodwood when he was beaten less than five lengths into fifth place despite a slow start and being hampered in running. Trainer Harry Eustace clearly loves this horse and he knows how to prepare one for a big target. So back Sea of Kings one point each way too at 6-1, with bet365, Betfred, Sky Bet, Paddy Power or Betfair, all paying four places.
Saffie Osborne has been riding well all week at York, including winning on a 33-1 shot on the opening day of this meeting, and she had a decent chance of winning another race tomorrow with her mount in the Sky Bet Constantine Handicap (4.10 p.m.) over six furlongs.
Once trained by Henry Candy but now with Richard Spencer, TWILIGHT CALLS won the race of those 14 runners that raced on the far side in the Coral Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood earlier this month. He’s been dropped another llb in the official ratings and so this seven-year-old gelding is starting to look well handicapped off a mark of 96. Back Twilight Calls one point each way at 12-1 with Sky Bet, paying a generous six places.
Finally, I make no apology for promoting a good cause. Tom Dunlop, the 19-year-old son of former trainer Harry, is cycling 2,600 miles across the UK, visiting all 60 racecourses, and raising funds for the Injured Jockeys Fund and Diverse Abilities. If anyone is feeling flush after Penworthy’s profitable season of tipping, please donate a few quid to support Tom’s Big Bike Ride.
Pending:
1 point each way Celandine at 22-1 for the Nunthorpe, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Ya Mo Be There at 6-1 for the Ebor Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Talismans Time at 10-1 for the Melrose Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Sea of Kings at 6-1 for the Melrose Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Twilight Calls at 12-1 in the Sky Bet Constantine Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Plage De Havre at 16-1 for the Ebor Handicap, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. NR.
1 point each way Majestic Warrior at 25-1 for the Ebor Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way No Half Measures at 12-1 for the Sprint Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
The past week: – 4 points
2 points win Jumby at 11-2 in the TPT Fire Handicap. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Secret Guest at 17-2 in the Great St Wilfred, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dancing In Paris at 12-1 for the Sky Bet Stayers Handicap, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. 4th. + 2 points.
1 point each way Old Cock at 25-1 for theClipper Handicap, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2025 flat season running total: + 103.43 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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