Labour is on course to win the next general election, according to Lord Ashcroft. In two polls — one of 26 Tory-Labour marginal constituencies and another national poll carried out after election day — the former Tory treasurer says there is currently a 6.5 per cent swing to Labour. That’s enough for 83 Conservative MPs to disappear and for Ed Miliband to have a working majority. Both polls highlight the significant challenge David Cameron faces to remain Prime Minister next year. Here are five things you need to know about Ashcroft’s latest polling.
1. According to the marginal polls, Labour will have a working majority
In Ashcroft’s top 26 marginal constituencies (he is keen to point out Conservative HQ may have different seats in mind), there is a ten point lead over the Conservatives for Labour. This would give Labour a majority in the House of Commons of around 70 seats, enough to govern effectively.
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