Lucinda Russell is a trainer that I love to have on my side for the Cheltenham Festival. It’s not simply that she has got to be one of the nicest people in racing but, more importantly from the viewpoint of a gambler, she knows exactly how to prime one of her best horses for a big target.
I have been wanting to put up APPLE AWAY for this meeting for some time but Russell, who has trained three Festival winners to date, made this difficult by initially entering her seven-year-old mare in four Cheltenham races over as many days.
The Unibet Champion Hurdle is, of course, the traditional highlight of day one of the Festival
We now know, finally, Apple Away’s one and only target: today’s Grade 2 Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase (5.30 p.m.), which has attracted only seven runners.
Apple Away is consistent, talented and usually a sound jumper (although admittedly she made mistakes at Ascot last time out). To date, the best of her form came at Aintree in April last year when she won the Grade 1 15-runner Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in fine style.
Today’s contest on very soft ground should be right up her street even though she has to take on three supposed Irish hot-pots in Corbetts Cross, Embassy Gardens and Salvador Ziggy. Annoyingly, Apple Cross has more than halved in price over the past 48 hours but, nevertheless, back her each way at 7-1 with bet365 and Betfred, both paying three places (with seven runners, most bookies are only paying two places).
This year’s My Pension Expert Arkle Novices’ Chase (2.10 p.m.) is more open than usual following the injury to one-time favourite, Marine Nationale. I had intended to tip My Mate Mozzie in this race but the ground has gone against him.
Instead, with the ground edging towards heavy, I would rather be on HUNTERS YARN, who would be unbeaten in two runs this season but for falling at the last on his seasonal debut at Fairyhouse. He will relish the mud and so back him each way at 8-1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred.
The Unibet Champion Hurdle (3.30 p.m.) is, of course, the traditional highlight of day one of the Festival but the illness and subsequent defection of Constitution Hill has inevitably taken some of the shine from the race. State Man is the most likely horse to take advantage of Constitution Hill’s absence but he will now run at prohibitively odds on.
I would rather have an each way play in the race. I had expected that horse to be Iberico Lord who was supplemented for the race by Nicky Henderson once stable mate Constitution Hill dropped out. Iberico Lord had landed two big handicaps this season – the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle – and his hold-up style means he never wins by more than he has to. However, the poor form of the Nicky Henderson yard and the fact he has been backed into 10-1 or less means I will not put him up as a bet.
Instead, at a bigger price, I prefer NEMEAN LION, an improving hurdler trained by Kerry Lee. Like Iberico Lord, he is a much better horse on soft ground and today he will have the cut in the ground that he needs to be at his best. Back him each way the 28-1 with bet365, SkyBet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes or Unibet, all paying three places.
Lossiemouth looks nailed on to win the Grade 1 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (4.10 p.m.) provided she runs to her best form and stays this longer trip. I expect her to do both but the rain makes LOVE ENVOI interesting each way.
Harry Fry’s mare has not been at her very best this season but she has good course and distance form in the book, including being second in this race last year. Back Love Envoi each way at 11-1 with bet365 and Paddy Power, both paying three places.
The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50 p.m.) is a race full of ‘plot horses’ particularly from Ireland. Any number of these runners will prove to be far better than their current official ratings in a year or two.
Of the more exposed horses, I like the chances of Liari, trained by Paul Nicholls and who is on a four timer today after wins this season at Wincanton, Aintree and, most recently, Musselburgh, However, this race is more likely to go to an unexposed type trained in Ireland. The two that caught my attention at double figure prices were Ose Partir, trained by Martin Brassil, and PALAMON, trained by Paul Nolan. Both handlers are astute and love to target the Festival with their best horses.
On balance, I will only put up the latter. He qualified for today’s race with an encouraging third at Naas last month in a novice hurdle and so back him each way at 16-1 with bet365, William Hill , Paddy Power and Betfred, both paying six places. That’s the fourth and final recommended new bet for today.
The Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50 p.m.) is a wide-open affair and those at the top of the market all have a chance, notably Meetingofthewaters, The Goffer and Chianti Classico. However, all are 13/2 or less in a 24-runner handicap and that’s too short.
I have already put up Stumptown for this contest at 12-1 and I am happy to leave him as my only bet in the race. He has rock solid course and distance form and, still only seven, his best days still lie ahead of him as a staying chaser who can go on all ground conditions.
Also, don’t be surprised if Monbeg Genius runs a much better race today than he did when disappointing terribly behind Thunder Rock at Kelso just ten days ago. He has been backed quite heavily over the past 48 hours.
In the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30 p.m.), I was tempted to tip Slade Steel, trained in Ireland by Henry de Bromhead, another handler who knows how successfully target the big Festival races. De Bromhead was clearly keen to avoid a second race against Ballyburn having been comprehensively beaten by Willie Mullins’ talented gelding in a Grade 1 novices’ hurdle at Leopardstown last month.
With Ballyburn going for tomorrow’s Gallagher Novices Hurdle, Slade Steel might well be good enough to beat the other Mullins’ horses at the top of the market but odds of 5-1 or less make little appeal so I will pass on the race from a betting viewpoint. I will be back tomorrow morning at a similar time to preview day 2 of the Festival. In the meantime, good luck to one and all.
Pending:
1 point each way Hunters Yarn at 8-1 in the Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Nemean Lion in the Champion Hurdle at 28-1, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Love Envoi at 11-1 in the Mares Hurdles, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each ay Palamon in the Boodles Hurdle at 16-1, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Apple Away at 15/2 for the NH Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Libberty Hunter at 12-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
1 point each way Doddiethegreat at 12-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Bowtogreatness at 20-1 NRNB for the Kim Muir, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Bravemansgame at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
Settled bets from last weekend:
1 point each way Faivoir in the Imperial Cup at 11-1, 1/5th odds, paying 6 places. 2nd. + 1.2 points.
1 point each way Dartmoor Pirate at 16-1 in the ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 4th + 2.2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 17.61 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
Comments